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Price & Time: Crude Reversal Next Week?

Price & Time: Crude Reversal Next Week?

2014-05-23 12:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD crack 200-day MA
  • Kiwi closes in on double top neckline trigger
  • Cycles favor a top in crude as it near range extremes

New to Currency Trading? Learn More HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Crude Reversal Next Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD broke under the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s high near 1.3640 to trade at its lowest level since mid-February
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in EUR/USD while under 1.3755
  • A daily close under 1.3640 should confirm that another leg lower is underway in the exchange rate
  • A very minor cycle turn window is eyed early next week
  • Only strength back through the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3755 would shift the near-term trend bias positive

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.3755.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3550

1.3585

1.3630

1.3710

*1.3755

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price & Time: Crude Reversal Next Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD moved steadily lower since peaking near the 8th square root relationship of the year’s low at .8770
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Bird while under .8655
  • The .8515 level remains an important pivot with weakness below needed to signal that a new leg lower is underway
  • A turn window is seen late next week
  • A move back through .8655 would turn us positive on the Kiwi

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while .8655 holds.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

.8465

*.8515

.8540

.8590

*.8655

Focus Chart of the Day: CRUDE

Price & Time: Crude Reversal Next Week?

The first part of next week looks important for the FXCM Crude instrument USOil from a timing perspective as several short and long-term cycles will be converging around this time. We favor a top of some sort during this turn window given the persistent grind higher of the past few weeks. The top of the recent range coincides with a key Gann level near 104.90 and this looks to be a good level to watch closely for signs of an initial reversal. After that there is slew of resistance over 106.00, but we doubt the market will extend that high before turning. New closing highs after Wednesday would invalidate our immediate negative cyclical outlook.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to natural law and through the use of various geometric, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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