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Price & Time: Gold Gearing Up For A Powerful Move

Price & Time: Gold Gearing Up For A Powerful Move

2014-05-21 12:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY breaks below important downside pivot
  • USD/CAD testing key near-term resistance
  • Next few days will be pivotal for the yellow metal

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Gold Gearing Up For A Powerful Move

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY touched its lowest level since the start of February earlier today before rebounding just ahead of the year-to-date low near 100.75
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in USD/JPY while below 102.35
  • A move under 100.75 will be further evidence that a more important decline is indeed unfolding in the exchange rate
  • An important cycle turn window is seen next week
  • Only strength back through the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s high at 102.35 would shift the near-term trend bias positive

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 102.35.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

100.35

*100.75

101.10

101.35

*102.35

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

Price & Time: Gold Gearing Up For A Powerful Move

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD has moved stubbornly higher since rebounding ahead of a key Fibonacci cluster near 1.0800 at the beginning of the month
  • Our near-term trend bias is still lower in Funds while below 1.0915
  • Interim support is seen around 1.0855, but weakness under 1.0800 is really needed to signal broader downside resumption
  • Minor cycle turn windows are seen today and
  • A daily close over 1.0915 will turn the near-term trend bias positive

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the short side under 1.0915. Flat on a close above.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0800

1.0855

1.0905

*1.0915

1.0960

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

Price & Time: Gold Gearing Up For A Powerful Move

Gold is locked in a contracting range and looks to be gearing up for a powerful move any day now. The question is in which direction? Given the large range day reversals on high volume in the metal during key cyclical turn windows on April 24th and May 2nd we have been favoring an eventual move to the upside in Gold. However, the metal’s inability to get out of its own way since registering these reversals is beginning to make us seriously question this view. The next few days should be important for determining direction. Any weakness under 1268 would completely undermine the fading positive cyclical picture and turn things quickly negative. A cluster of Gann levels between 1315 and 1321 is paramount with a move over the upper boundary of this zone desperately needed to confirm that our seemingly stale positive view is the correct one.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to natural law and through the use of various geometric, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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