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Price & Time: Reversal or Consolidation in Gold?

Price & Time: Reversal or Consolidation in Gold?

2014-05-13 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Euro nearing key downside pivot
  • NZD/USD needs to be watched closely here
  • Lack of follow through in Gold becoming a concern

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: Reversal or Consolidation in Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under aggressive pressure since reversing from near 1.4000 during last week’s cyclical turn window
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Euro while below 1.3875
  • Last month’s low near 1.3670 is now a key downside pivot with a daily close below needed to confirm a broader topping pattern
  • A very minor cycle turn window is seen mid-week
  • Only strength back through the 1st square root realtionship of the year’s high at 1.3875 would relieve the immediate downside pressure

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.3875.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3670

1.3695

1.3710

1.3755

1.3825

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Price & Time: Reversal or Consolidation in Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD reversed sharply lower last week from the 8th square root relationship of the year’s low in the .8770 area
  • Our near-term trend bias remains higher, however, while above the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at .8555
  • A move through .8710 is needed to re-instill upside momentum
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen today
  • A move under .8555 will turn us negative on the Bird

NZD/USD Strategy: Square here.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

*.8555

.8590

.8640

*.8710

*.8770

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

Price & Time: Reversal or Consolidation in Gold?

Gold recorded another large range reversal yesterday off Gann support near 1280. This is the third such occurrence in the past three weeks. On the face of it this action is suggestive of some sort of bottom or bottoming process. This view is further bolstered by the uptick in volume registered during these large range days. What concerns us is the lack of upside traction that has followed them. A move through Gann resistance at 1321 needs to be seen soon to avoid disappointment and set the stage for a more impulsive push higher in the weeks ahead like our cyclical analysis suggests. Any weakness under 1270 would surprise and more importantly negate this potential bottom - likely triggering a very sharp decline.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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