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Price & Time: Kiwi Reversal Significant?

Price & Time: Kiwi Reversal Significant?

2014-05-08 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY nearing major downside pivot
  • GBP/USD stalls near key Gann level
  • Kiwi reverses from key resistance

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price & Time: Kiwi Reversal Significant?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains near the low-end of the range in place since early February
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the rate while below 103.10
  • A daily close below 101.35 is needed to set off a more significant move lower in the exchange rate
  • A minor turn window is seen early next week
  • Only a push back over 103.10 would shift the near-term trend bias to positive

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while under 103.10. Will look to add on a clear break of 101.35.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

100.75

*101.35

101.75

102.35

*103.10

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

Price & Time: Kiwi Reversal Significant?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD has stalled near the 18th square root relationship of last year’s low near 1.6970
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher while over 1.6850
  • A close over 1.6970 is needed to re-instill upside momentum
  • A cycle turn window is seen here
  • Only weakness under 1.6850 would turn us negative on Cable

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the long side (reduced) while 1.6850 holds.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.6850

1.6910

1.6950

*1.6970

1.6210

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

Price & Time: Kiwi Reversal Significant?

The price action in NZD/USD over the past couple of days has been interesting. On Tuesday the exchange rate tested and promptly reversed from .8770 - which is the 8th square root relationship of the year-to-date low recorded back in February. Fairly aggressive follow on weakness yesterday confirmed at least a minor reversal is in place, but a move under the 2nd square root relationship of this week’s high near .8590 is really required confirm that a more important change in trend is underway. Various cyclical techniques seem to favor weakness in the rate over the next few weeks. Only unexpected aggressive strength through .8770 would completely undermine the negative cyclical outlook.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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