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Price & Time: USD/JPY About to Surprise?

Price & Time: USD/JPY About to Surprise?

2014-05-07 13:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD enters major turn window
  • Gold probes key resistance zone
  • USD/JPY closing in on important downside pivot

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Price & Time: USD/JPY About to Surprise?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD pierced the 1.3900 78.6% retracement of the March/April decline on Tuesday to trade at its highest level in almost two months
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the Euro while over 1.3870
  • A daily close over 1.3970 is needed to set off a more important move higher in the exchange rate
  • The next couple of days are critical from a time cycle perspective
  • Weakness below 1.3870 will turn us negative on the Euro.

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side (reduced) while over 1.3870.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3870

1.3900

1.3930

1.3940

*1.3970

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Price & Time: USD/JPY About to Surprise?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD reversed sharply from the cycle turn window we pinpointed late last week
  • Our near-term trend bias is now higher in the metal while over 1270
  • A confluence of Gann levels near 1320 is immediate resistance, but a push through last month’s high at 1331 is really needed to trigger a more important push higher
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen around the end of the week
  • A move under 1270 would turn us negative on Gold

XAU/USD Strategy: Like the long side while 1270 holds.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1270

1300

1309

1320

*1331

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

Price & Time: USD/JPY About to Surprise?

We have written a lot recently about the importance of this week for USD/Europe from a timing perspective. If aGreenback reversal is going to materialize then it should happen around this time. Quickly this week is also becoming critical for USD/JPY. Initially we were looking for a secondary high to occur sometime this week as well, but the reaction in the exchange rate after US employment data on Friday seems to have led to an important high slightly earlier than expected. The reaction over the next few days at the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high near 101.35 will be extremely important in our view. A clear breach of this level (especially on a closing basis) will confirm the start of an important leg lower in USD/JPY. With implied volatility so low and complacency running high the possibility of a very aggressive decline that catches the markets off guard looks strong in our opinion. Failure to break under 101.35 by the end of the week would improve the picture, but only a move over 103.10 turns us positive.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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