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Price & Time: Too Much "Hope" in USD/JPY?

Price & Time: Too Much "Hope" in USD/JPY?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD respecting key Fibonacci retracement
  • Gold reverses sharply during important cycle turn window
  • USD/JPY looks vulnerable to a reversal next week

New to Currency Trading? Learn More HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD remains in a tight range below the 78.6% retracement of the March/April near 1.3900
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the Euro while over 1.3730
  • A move through 1.3900 is needed to trigger a new leg higher
  • Today and the middle of next week are important potential turn windows in the rate
  • A daily close under 1.3730 would turn us negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while 1.3730 holds.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3730

1.3770

1.3845

*1.3900

1.3940

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD reversed sharply last week off 1270 during a key Fibonacci turn window
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Gold while below 1306
  • A daily close under 1270 would confirm a resumption of the recent decline
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is eyed Friday/early next week
  • A move through 1306 will turn us positive on the metal

XAU/USD Strategy: Square here, may look to go long on a move through 1306.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1260

*1270

1291

*1306

1331

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

USD/JPY found support at the beginning of the month near the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high in the 101.35 area. The recovery that has followed has been steady but has made little real upside progress as the exchange rate remains in the middle of its 3-month range. Interestingly despite this lack of progress on the upside, sentiment towards the Yen has fallen dramatically with the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) touching just 13% bulls on Monday. Usually such extremes in sentiment are witnessed after powerful trends not minor recoveries like we have seen in USD/JPY over the past few weeks. Such conviction suggests to us that USD/JPY is vulnerable to a downside break in May. The first half of next week looks significant from a cyclical perspective and a high in USD/JPY is favored around this time.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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