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Price & Time:Turn Window in the Pound

Price & Time:Turn Window in the Pound

2014-04-14 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • GBP/USD at minor cyclical crossroads over next couple of days
  • USD/JPY testing major downside pivot
  • USD/CAD rebounds off key support

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_APR_14_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time:Turn Window in the Pound

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY is in consolidation mode just above the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 101.35
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative on the exchange rate while below 103.00
  • A daily close below 101.35 is needed to confirm the start of a more important decline
  • The latter half of the week is a potentially important cycle turn window
  • A move over 103.00 would turn us positive on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 103.00.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

100.75

*101.35

101.70

102.75

*103.00

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_APR_14_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time:Turn Window in the Pound

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD found support last week at the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high near 1.0860
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Funds while below 1.1010
  • A move under 1.0910 is needed to re-instill immediate downside momentum
  • The next couple of days are a cycle turn window for USD/CAD
  • A daily close over 1.1010 would turn us positive on the exchange rate

USD/CAD Strategy: Only reduced short positions favored while below 1.1010.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0860

1.0910

1.0975

*1.1010

1.1055

Focus Chart of the Day: GBP/USD

PT_APR_14_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time:Turn Window in the Pound

The middle of the week remains important for GBP/USD from a timing perspective. A convergence of minor cyclical relationships towards the middle of the week suggest Cable is vulnerable to at least a minor turn around this time. Key resistance is the year’s high around 1.6785 and a square root relationship of last year’s low near 1.6850. Strength after Wednesday above 1.6850 would signal the Pound has again weathered the cyclical storm and is likely headed higher into the next key turn period around the end of the month. It would take weakness below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.6560 to signal that a more important top is already in place.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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