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Price & Time: Major Downside Pivot Tested in the Yen

Price & Time: Major Downside Pivot Tested in the Yen

2013-07-30 16:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD breaks key Gann level
  • USD/JPY nearing big break?
  • GOLD has an important turn window next week

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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_APR_11_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Major Downside Pivot Tested in the Yen

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has rallied steadily over the past week to test the 78.6% retracement of the March/April decline near 1.3900
  • Our broader bias is negative on the Euro while below 1.3970
  • Back under 1.3730 is needed to re-instill downside momentum
  • A cycle turn window is eyed next week
  • Only over 1.3970 turns broader outlook positive

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: May look to sell against 1.3970.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3730

1.3800

1.3885

1.3900

*1.3970

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_APR_11_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Major Downside Pivot Tested in the Yen

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has come under steady pressure this past week to again challenge the 4th square root relationship of the years’ high at 101.35
  • Our broader bias is negative in the rate while below 104.40
  • A close under 101.35 will signal a resumption of the broader decline
  • Late next week is a potentially important cycle turn window
  • Only strength over 104.40 will turn us positve on USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: We like tactical short positions in USD/JPY while below 104.40 on a weekly close basis.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

100.75

*101.35

101.65

103.00

*104.40

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

WPT_APR_11_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Major Downside Pivot Tested in the Yen

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has recovered smarlty over the past week from just under the 1285 50% retracement of the December/March advance
  • We are negative on the metal while below 1336
  • The 1285 area remains key support with a weekly close below needed to signal a resumption of the downtrend
  • The next turn window of importance is seen later this month
  • A daily close over 1336 will turn us positive on the metal

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like holding reduced short positions while below 1336.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1260

*1285

1318

1318

*1336

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about themHERE.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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