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Price & Time: Gold Overcomes Key Topside Retracement

Price & Time: Gold Overcomes Key Topside Retracement

2014-04-11 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY testing major downside pivot
  • GBP/USD reverses after making new multi-year high
  • GOLD turn window a dud?

New to Currency Trading? Learn More HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_APR_11_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Gold Overcomes Key Topside Retracement

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY tested the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 101.35 on Thursday
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative on the exchange rate while below 103.00
  • A daily close below 101.35 is needed to confirm the start of a more important decline
  • The latter half of next week is a potentially important cycle turn window
  • A move over 103.00 would turn us positive on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 103.00.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

100.75

*101.35

101.45

102.75

*103.00

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_APR_11_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Gold Overcomes Key Topside Retracement

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD punched through to a new yearly high on Thursday before reversing
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Cable while over 1.6655
  • A daily close over 1.6820 is needed to signal that a new leg higher of the uptrend is unfolding
  • The middle of next week is the next cycle turn window
  • A daily close below 1.6655 will turn us negative on the Pound

GBP/USD Strategy: Like reducing longs positions into next week’s turn window.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.6655

1.6690

1.6725

*1.6820

1.6850

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_APR_11_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Gold Overcomes Key Topside Retracement

The recovery in Gold prices continues. On Thursday the metal managed to rise above the 38% retracement of the March/April decline at 1321. A couple of longer-term cyclical relationships related to the 2011 high and last year’s low converged this week which should have increased the possibility of some kind of turn in price. So far we have seen little evidence of any turn. Continued strength next week over this week’s high (whatever it proves to be after today) would completely negate the turn window and keep attention higher. The next potentially important cyclical pivot is seen around April 25th. Weakness under 1310 is needed to signal a last minute potential turn.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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