News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/E9ZmJvqO0z
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/fqxw1AoKc1
  • Gold snapped a two-week losing streak but keeps price within the broader August downtrend. These are the levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/B3Jct6mIBD https://t.co/xTGIM2hRBv
  • $GBPUSD continues to move higher, despite Friday’s weakness, as vaccination hopes continue to fuel positive sentiment despite ongoing lockdown fears and downbeat UK data. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/S8UoHzOwFN https://t.co/qI6UZdggvM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/6wxX6oQurn
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/w009tJEQZn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/2AeO1AdD2M
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/INJz4NSugQ
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZX8cS https://t.co/qdrsi61CN8
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/IyQdfq29fz
Price & Time: Breakdown or Bear Trap in the Euro?

Price & Time: Breakdown or Bear Trap in the Euro?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • Important week for the Euro from a time cycle perspective
  • USD/JPY nearing key support
  • Important turn window is Gold this week

New to Currency Trading? Learn More HERE

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_APR_7_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Breakdown or Bear Trap in the Euro?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY touched its highest level since January on Friday before reversing sharply to close the week below 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 103.35
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while over 102.35
  • A move through last week’s high at 104.10 is needed to signal a resumption of the uptrend
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen over the enxt couple of days
  • Only a move under 102.35 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: We like the long side while above 102.35.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*102.35

102.75

103.20

103.40

*104.10

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_APR_7_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Breakdown or Bear Trap in the Euro?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has recovered smartly from just under the 50% retracement of the December/March move higher at 1285
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Gold while below 1336
  • A move under 1285 is needed to signal a resumption of the downtrend
  • An important cycle turn window is seen over the next few days
  • A clear move 1336 will shift the near-term trend bias to positive.

XAU/USD Strategy: Next few days are critical for Gold. Like holding only a minimal short position below 1336.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1265

*1285

1299

1318

*1336

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_APR_7_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Breakdown or Bear Trap in the Euro?

EUR/USD closed last week below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3730. The technical development suggests that the recent weakness in the exchange rate is likely more than just a correction and that a more important change in trend is taking shape. Clouding the negative technical picture is the second half of this week as a fairly important cyclical turn window is eyed around this time. A reversal during this turn window could see the Euro rally for a few weeks. This would fit the 35-year seasonal pattern for April which shows the exchange rate has a tendency to strengthen over the second half of the month. This technical/cyclical impasse is making the rate even harder than usual to analyze. The price action over the next few days should help clear up the picture a little bit. If the Euro can gain traction below 1.3640 over the next few days then any recovery that develops later this week is unlikely to be very aggressive. Failure to get under 1.3640 by Thursday on the other hand or any strength over 1.3820 and all bets are off.

To receive Kristian’s analysis directly via email, pleaseSIGN UP HERE.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES