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Price & Time: USD/CAD Headed Higher Again or Rolling Over?

Price & Time: USD/CAD Headed Higher Again or Rolling Over?

2014-03-18 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY testing key Gann support level, some ominous implications if it breaks
  • USD/CAD entering in key cycle turn window, about to breakout or breakdown?
  • Gold turns at key time period, what to look for next

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_MAR_18_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: USD/CAD Headed Higher Again or Rolling Over?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has come under steady pressure since failing at the 103.75 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low at the beginning of the month
  • A close below 101.35 will turn us negative on the rate
  • A move through 102.75 is desperately needed to restore some upside momentum
  • The end of the week is a minor cycle turn window

USD/JPY Strategy: Clinging to reduced longs while above 101.35.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

100.75

*101.35

101.45

102.30

*102.75

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_MAR_18_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: USD/CAD Headed Higher Again or Rolling Over?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD touched its highest level since early September yesterday before failing just shy of the 6th square root relationship of the 2013 low near 1394
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Gold while over 1349
  • A close over 1395 is needed to signal that the metal has weathered the “cyclical storm” and is headed higher again
  • A long-term cycle turn window ends today
  • A daily close below 1349 will turn us negative on Gold

XAU/USD Strategy: Yesterday’s outside range day on a key day of the turn window warns of a reversal. Will exit remaining long position if 1349 breaks.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1349

1357

1360

1376

*1396

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD

PT_MAR_18_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: USD/CAD Headed Higher Again or Rolling Over?

A few interesting cyclical relationships converge over the next few days in USD/CAD. As such, we favor a low of some sort developing during this time, but this is contingent upon any remaining weakness staying above the February closing low at 1.0940 and ideally the closer support level at 1.1010. The 1st square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.1125 is an important near-term pivot and a clear move through it is needed to confirm that a low is indeed in place. This would likely set up a new leg higher in Funds. Unexpected aggressive weakness below 1.0940 would undermine the case for positive resolution of the multi-week consolidation and risk triggering a more immediate and aggressive decline.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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