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Price & Time: EUR/USD on the Cusp of a Big Break

Price & Time: EUR/USD on the Cusp of a Big Break

2014-03-13 12:05:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD closing in on key price zone, stronger move coming?
  • USD/JPY remains under pressure, but key support level approaching
  • GBP/USD bounces sharply off important support area, uptrend resuming?

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_MAR_13_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: EUR/USD on the Cusp of a Big Break

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains under pressure following last week’s failure at the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s high near 103.75
  • Our near-term trend bias remains positive in the rate while above 101.35
  • Interim resistance is seen around 103.40, but a move through 103.75 is really required to signal that a new move higher of importance is unfolding
  • A medium-term turn window is seen later next week
  • A close under 101.35 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while 101.35 holds.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*101.35

102.35

102.35

103.40

*103.75

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_MAR_13_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: EUR/USD on the Cusp of a Big Break

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD fell to its lowest level in a month yesterday before reversing from just above the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.6560
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Cable while above 1.6560
  • The 1.6740 area is an important upside pivot with a daily close over this level needed to signal a broader upside resumption
  • A cycle turn window is seen here
  • Only weakness back below 1.6560 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.6560.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.6560

1.6660

1.6695

*1.6740

1.6780

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_MAR_13_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: EUR/USD on the Cusp of a Big Break

EUR/USD has punched through to new multi-year highs this morning. While the price action of the past few days has been impressive, the single currency still has a bit of work to do before signaling the “all clear” for a more important run higher. We say that because of the chart above. It is a monthly. It shows a nice convergence of several key retracement levels from the 2008, 2009 and 2011 peaks between 1.3830 to about 1.3975. A daily settlement above 1.3970 would confirm a break of the zone and set up and eventual move towards the next confluence area up around 1.4300. From a cyclical standpoint, we don’t really see anything meaningful in the way of “time resistance” until about the second half of next week. What does concern us is sentiment. The Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) has been showing around 85% bulls over the past few days so optimism is getting a bit too one way for our liking. However, it won’t become a real concern until it gets into the low 90’s. Ideally this would occur later next week into the turn window. A daily close back under 1.3830 before breaking above 1.3970 (or very soon after) would be a negative development for EUR/USD.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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