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Price & Time: Cyclical Storm Coming

Price & Time: Cyclical Storm Coming

2014-03-11 12:10:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD probing key long-term resistance zone
  • USD/CAD closing in on big resistance
  • Important time for stocks ahead

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them HERE.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_MAR_11_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Cyclical Storm Coming

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded at its highest level since late 2011 on Friday
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive in the Euro while over the 50% retracement of the February/March range near 1.3695
  • Interim resistance is seen around 1.3900, but traction over 1.3970 is really needed to confirm that a more important move higher is underway
  • A turn window is seen next week
  • A close under 1.3695 would turn us negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Look to buy on weakness while 1.3695 holds.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3695

1.3765

1.3850

1.3900

*1.3970

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_MAR_11_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Cyclical Storm Coming

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD closed below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.1010 late last week before turning sharply higher
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Funds while over 1.0955
  • Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1160, but strength over 1.1220 is required to signal that a more important leg higher is unfolding
  • The latter part of this week is a cycle turn window
  • Only a daily close below 1.0955 would turn us negative on USD/CAD

USD/CAD Strategy: Look to buy on weakness against 1.0955.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0955

1.1010

1.1110

1.1160

*1.1220

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

PT_MAR_11_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Cyclical Storm Coming

A quick glance at the chart of just about any US equity index will show some very powerful and seemingly healthy uptrends. Below the surface we see vulnerability. The month of March is historically one of the most important for the stock market as some major cyclical tops and bottoms have occurred during this month over the years ( most recently 2000, 2009 and the secondary low in 2002). On this basis alone our interest perks up, but this year is looking especially significant given the multitude of cyclical relationships we see converging in the next few days. Starting this Friday and continuing into about the middle of next week various long-term Pi, Fibonacci and other harmonics should begin to influence. Paradoxically, new highs (or near new highs) in the indices heading into this time period would actually be very negative and sets the stage for a potentially important reversal. In the S&P 500, the 1890 level and the 1915/20 area look like key resistance heading into this timeframe. Strength in stocks (new highs) after the middle of next week or an inversion low over the next few days would obviously change the narrative. Such occurrences would signal to us that the indices have weathered the “cyclical storm” and are headed generally higher into the 3rd quarter.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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