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Price & Time: Big Test Coming Up For USD/JPY

Price & Time: Big Test Coming Up For USD/JPY

2014-03-05 13:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY closing in on key resistance
  • EUR/USD pulls back from important long-term resistance
  • USD/CAD retains positive tone

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_MAR_5_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Big Test Coming Up For USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under modest pressure since failing last week near the 3x1 Gann angle line of the 2013 high at 1.3830
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher while above the 1.3655 2nd square root relationship of the 2013 high
  • The 2013 closing high near 1.3800 remains critical resistance and a daily close over this level is needed to confirm the start of a new move higher
  • The latter part of the week is a minor cycle turn window
  • A daily close below 1.3655 would turn us negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Square here.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3655

1.3680

1.3730

1.3765

*1.3800

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_MAR_5_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Big Test Coming Up For USD/JPY

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD is in consolidation mode above the 50% retracement of the Jan/Feb range at 1.1065
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive in Funds while over 1.1010
  • Interim resistance is seen at the 1st square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.1120, but a move through 1.1190 is really required to signal that the broader advance has resumed
  • The second half of next week is a key cycle turn window
  • A close under 1.1010 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.1010.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.1010

1.1060

1.1080

1.1120

*1.1190

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

PT_MAR_5_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Big Test Coming Up For USD/JPY

We had a good call last month in USD/JPY as we were looking for a low during the first week of February. The market gave us that turn, but the move higher from 100.75 has been very unimpressive especially when taking into account that the S&P 500 has rallied almost 8% during the same period. Has the trade favored by virtually every investment manager at the start of the year lost its way? It would seem so, but bulls still have some hope. The next few days look fairly positive from a short-term cyclical perspective. We expect to see another test of the critical 102.75 level (2nd square root relationship of the YTD low) which has capped the rate for almost a month now. A clear break of this level will likely put USD/JPY back in favor and set the stage for a much more aggressive rally into the middle of the month. Failure to surpass 102.75 and/or weakness back under 101.35 would be extremely negative for the exchange rate.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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