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Price & Time: Don't Just Beware the Ides this Year

Price & Time: Don't Just Beware the Ides this Year

2014-03-04 13:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY rebounds off key support level
  • GBP/USD nearing important pivot
  • March equity peak

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_MAR_4_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Don't Just Beware the Ides this Year

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY tested key support yesterday at the 101.35 4th square root relationship of the year’s high, but did not close below
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher while 101.35 holds
  • The 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 102.75 remains critical resistance with a move over this level needed to trigger a more important push higher
  • The latter part of the week is a minor cycle turn window
  • A daily close below 101.35 will turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Square here. Awaiting 102.75/101.35 range to get resolved.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*101.35

101.70

101.85

102.05

*102.75

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_MAR_4_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Don't Just Beware the Ides this Year

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD remains in consolidation mode above the 38% retracement of the February range at 1.6595
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive in Cable while over 1.6595
  • The 16th square root relationship of the 2013 low at 1.6735 is key near-term resistance with a move over this level needed to confirm an upside resumption
  • The first half of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window, but the end of the month looks especially significant from a longer-term timing perspective
  • A close under 1.6595 would turn us negative on the Pound

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the long side while 1.6595.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.6595

1.6655

1.6690

1.6690

*1.6735

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

PT_MAR_4_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Don't Just Beware the Ides this Year

We begin each month by surveying the cyclical landscape of various key financial instruments. Judging by the unusual large amount of potentially important cycle turn windows slated over the next 20 trading days, March is shaping up to be a key inflection point for the year as a whole. Markets with important timing this month include EUR/CHF, SPX, Gold, Silver, Cable and the FXCM Dollar Index. Special attention needs to be paid to equities and precious metals around the middle of the month as the confluence of longer-term cycles at this time is very compelling. Month end looks quite important for the Pound.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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