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Price & Time: How Important Was Friday's High in the Kiwi?

Price & Time: How Important Was Friday's High in the Kiwi?

2014-03-03 13:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD trades at highest level of the year
  • GOLD touches highest level in 4- months
  • Kiwi reverses during cycle turn window

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_Mar_3_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: How Important Was Friday's High in the Kiwi?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD moved sharply higher on Friday to trade at its highest level since late December, but was unable to close above the 78.6% retracement of the Dec/Jan range near 1.3800
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher while over 1.3655
  • The 1.3800 level is an important near-term pivot with strength above needed to confirm a resumption of the broader advance
  • The middle of the week is a minor cycle turn window
  • A daily close below the 2nd square root relationship of the 2013 high will turn us negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Stopped out of short positions. Square here.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3655

1.3735

1.3760

*1.3800

1.3890

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_Mar_3_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: How Important Was Friday's High in the Kiwi?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD punched through Fibonacci resistance at 1341 today to trade at its highest level in over four months
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive in Gold while above 1306
  • The 5th square root relationship of the 2013 low at 1349 is important near-term resistance
  • A minor Gann cycle turn window is seen around the middle of the week, but the middle of the month looks extremely important for the metal from a timing perspective
  • Weakness below the 50% retracement of the August to December decline at 1306 would turn us negative on the metal

XAU/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1306.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1306

1320

1349

*1349

1361

Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

PT_Mar_3_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: How Important Was Friday's High in the Kiwi?

NZD/USD traded at its highest level in six weeks on Friday before reversing sharply from just above the 4th square root relationship of the year-to-date low. With an important cycle turn window related to the 2011 high in the exchange rate hitting right here we have good reason to believe that Friday’s price action marks some sort of cyclical peak. A daily close below Friday’s low at .8358 will further confirm this notion and set the stage for a deeper decline in the days ahead. Only unexpected aggressive strength back through .8425 would completely undermine this negative cyclical view.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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