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Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Threatening Big Break

Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Threatening Big Break

2014-02-28 16:20:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD testing key resistance
  • USD/JPY nearing important directional move
  • GOLD stalls at major retracement

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Weekly_PT_FEB_28_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Threatening Big Break

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD touched its highest level since late December this week
  • A weekly close above the 2013 closing high near 1.3800 will shift our trend bias to positive
  • Under 1.3640 is needed to re-instill any sort of downside momentum
  • The next cycle turn window or importance is seen around the middle of March

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Clinging to tactical short positions against a daily close over 1.3800.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3640

1.3765

1.3800

*1.3800

*1.3890

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Weekly_PT_FEB_28_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Threatening Big Break

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains range bound below key Gann resistance at 102.75
  • Our broader bias is negative in the rate while below 104.40
  • The 100.80 level remains a key downside pivot that needs to be breached soon on a daily close to undermine the positive cyclicality of the early February low
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen next week, but the next cycle inflection point of significance looks to be around middle of March
  • A weekly close back over 104.40 would turn us positive again on USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: We like the short side in USD/JPY while below 104.40.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*100.80

101.35

102.05

102.75

*104.40

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Weekly_PT_FEB_28_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: EUR/USD Threatening Big Break

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD probed above the 61.8% retracement of the August to December decline at 1336 to trade at its highest level since late October
  • Our broader trend bias remains positive in the metal while above the 1x2 Gann angle line of the 2013 closing low now near 1295
  • The 1336 level is remains key resistance with a close over this level needed to signal that a new leg higher is underway
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen mid-week
  • A daily close under 1295 would turn us negative on Gold

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like being long while over 1295.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1295

1306

1325

*1336

1357

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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