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Price & Time: Key Test For Gold

Price & Time: Key Test For Gold

2014-02-27 13:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD fails at key Gann level
  • USD/CHF finds support at “hidden” retracement
  • Gold closing in on key resistance zone

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_FEB_27_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Key Test For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has turned lower following various failed attempts to break above the 1st square root relationship of the 2013 high at 1.3775
  • Our near-term trend bias is now lower in the Euro and will remain so while below 1.3775
  • A confluence of various Fibonacci levels at 1.3635 is an immediate near-term pivot with weakness below needed to trigger a more important decline
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • A daily close over 1.3775 would turn us positive on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: We like the short side while below 1.3775.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3590

*1.3635

1.3655

1.3685

*1.3775

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

PT_FEB_27_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Key Test For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF found support on Monday at the 88.6% retracement of the Dec/Jan advance near .8845
  • Our near-term trend bias is now positive on the exchange rate
  • The 61.8% retracement of the Dec/Jan range at .8935 is key overhead resistance (polarity) with traction above needed to set off a more important push higher
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen next week
  • A daily close under .8845 would turn us negative on USD/CHF

USD/CHF Strategy: Like the long side while over .8845.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

.8800

*.8845

.8900

*.8935

.8985

Focus Chart of the Day: XAU/USD

PT_FEB_27_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Key Test For Gold

The move higher in Gold since the start of the year has proven resilient. On Wednesday it briefly broke above key Fibonacci resistance at 1341 to trade at its highest level since late October. However, the metal could not hold onto these gains and settled lower on the day. This failure to gain traction over key resistance has us worried that XAU may be in the process of forming a short-term top. A Gann cycle turn window is seen next week and failure to make much headway over 1341 before then will increase risk of deeper downside correction. Under 1306 confirms a top. We should note the medium-term cyclical picture looks quite positive for the metal.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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