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Price & Time: USD/CHF Low?

Price & Time: USD/CHF Low?

2014-02-26 13:10:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY holding under key resistance
  • USD/CAD consolidates gains
  • USD/CHF enters important short-term turn window

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Price_Time_USDCHF_Low_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: USD/CHF Low?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode below the 2nd square root relationship of the year-to-date low at 102.75
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while above 101.35
  • A clear move through 102.75 is needed to trigger a more important advance in the exchange rate
  • An cycle turn window of some importance is seen over the next day or so
  • A daily close below the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 101.35 would turn us negative

USD/JPY Strategy: Square for the moment. Need to see the rate settle over 102.75 before committing to long positions.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*101.35

102.00

102.30

*102.75

103.15

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

Price_Time_USDCHF_Low_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: USD/CHF Low?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD reversed sharply higher last week from the 1.0905 3rd square root relationship of year’s high
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive in Funds while above 1.0905
  • The rate has so far encountered resistance at the 88.6% retracement of the Jan/Feb range at 1.1185 and a move through this level is needed signal a resumption of the broader move higher
  • A very minor cycle turn is seen on Thursday
  • Weakness below 1.0905 would turn us negative on Funds

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.0905.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0905

1.1000

1.1085

1.1120

*1.1185

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CHF

Price_Time_USDCHF_Low_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: USD/CHF Low?

As we made mention on Monday, the next 24-36 hours or so look important for the Euro from a short-term cyclical perspective. This logic extends to USD/CHF as well as the exchange rate has some interesting Fibonacci time relationships of its own converging over the next day or so. A reversal of some kind looks possible during this time especially if the rate can continue to hold above key support near .8850 (2013 closing low). A settle over .8900 would be further evidence of at least a near-term bottom.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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