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Weekly Price & Time: Gold Closing In On Key Retracement

Weekly Price & Time: Gold Closing In On Key Retracement

2014-02-21 16:47:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD tests key Gann resistance
  • USD/JPY in consolidation mode above important support
  • GOLD trades at 4-month high

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Weekly_Price__Time_Gold_Closing_In_On_Key_Retracement_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Gold Closing In On Key Retracement

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded to its highest levels since the start of the year this week before running into resistance at the 1st square root relationship of the 2013 high at 1.3775
  • Our trend bias is lower, however, in the Euro while below the 2013 closing high near 1.3800
  • The 1.3500 area remains a key downside pivot with weakness below needed to signal a resumption of the broader decline
  • A cycle turn window is seen around the middle of next week
  • Only a daily close back over 1.3800 would turn us positive on the Euro again

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under 1.3800.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3500

1.3655

1.3745

1.3775

*1.3800

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

Weekly_Price__Time_Gold_Closing_In_On_Key_Retracement_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Gold Closing In On Key Retracement

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded to its highest level since late January this week
  • Our broader bias is negative in the rate while below 104.40
  • The 100.80 level remains a key downside pivot that needs to be breached soon on a daily close to undermine the positive cyclicality of the early February low
  • The middle of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • A weekly close back over 104.40 would turn us positive again on USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: We like the short side in USD/JPY while below 104.40.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*100.80

101.35

102.65

103.35

*104.40

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Weekly_Price__Time_Gold_Closing_In_On_Key_Retracement_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Gold Closing In On Key Retracement

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD touched its highest leve in four months this week before stalling just ahead of the 61.8% retracement of the August to December decline at 1336
  • Our broader trend bias remains positive in the metal while above the 1x2 Gann angle line of the 2013 closing low now near 1280
  • The 1336 level is now key resistance with a move over this level needed to signal that a new leg higher is underway
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • A daily close under 1280 would turn us negative on Gold

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like being long while over 1280.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1280

1306

1322

*1336

1357

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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