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Price & Time: USD Revival?

Price & Time: USD Revival?

2014-02-20 13:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Euro reverses off key Gann level
  • Minor cycle turn window coming up in Cable
  • AUD/USD needs to be closely monitored

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_FEB_20_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: USD Revival?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded at its highest level since the start of the year on Wednesday before encountering stiff resistance at the 1st square root relationship of the 2013 high near 1.3775
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower higher following Tuesday’s close over 1.3710
  • The 1.3775 level is important resistance that needs to be overcome soon to trigger a more meaningful push higher in the rate
  • The middle of next week is the next cycle turn window of importance
  • A daily close below 1.3590 would shift our near-term trend bias negative again

EUR/USD Strategy: Square for the moment. Will look to position around middle of next week.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3590

1.3655

1.3695

*1.3770

1.3800

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_FEB_20_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: USD Revival?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD touched its highest level since November of 2009 on Monday before reversing sharply
  • Our near-term trend bias in positive in Cable while over 1.6560
  • A close over a Fibonacci expansion relationship related to the 2013 low at 1.6760 is needed to signal that a new leg higher in the rate is underway
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen on Friday
  • A daily close below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.6560 would turn us negative on Cable

GBP/USD Strategy: Look to buy on weakness over next day or against 1.6560.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.6560

1.6615

1.6650

1.6690

1.6760

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

PT_FEB_20_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: USD Revival?

USD/CAD turned very nicely at the start of the cycle turn window we have been highlighting. We are also watching AUD/USD very closely following Tuesday’s failure at the 38% retracement of the October to January decline near .9080. The start of the week was significant for the exchange rate from a shorter-term cyclical perspective and further weakness after today’s recovery attempt will be further evidence of a more important negative shift. A key downside pivot looks to be the .8890 2nd square root relationship of the Tuesday’s high. A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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