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Price & Time: Commodity Currencies Nearing Important Cyclical Inflections

Price & Time: Commodity Currencies Nearing Important Cyclical Inflections

2014-02-12 13:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD fails near key retracement
  • AUD/USD closing in on important resistance
  • Long-term cycle turn window seen next week in USD/CAD

Unfamiliar with Gann Square Root Relationships? Learn more about them here.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_FEB_12_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Commodity Currencies Nearing Important Cyclical Inflections

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD tested the 50% retracement of the December to February decline near 1.3685 before failing
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Euro while below the 2ndsquare root relationship of the year-to-date low near 1.3710
  • A confluence of Gann levels near 1.3525/40 is an important near-term pivot , but weakness under 1.3500 is really needed to signal a resumption of the broader decline
  • A cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • A daily close over 1.3710 would turn us positive on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: We like the short side while 1.3710 holds.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3500

1.3525

1.3575

1.3635

*1.3710

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_FEB_12_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Commodity Currencies Nearing Important Cyclical Inflections

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD has moved steadily higher since finding support late last month near the 78.6% retracement of the 2010/2011 advance in the .8700 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the Aussie while over the 2nd square root relationship of the year-to-date low at .8845
  • The 38% retracement of the October to January decline near .9080 is important resistance that needs to be overcome to increase the odds that this advance is more than just a minor correction
  • The middle of next week is the next important cycle turn window
  • Only a daily close below .8845 would turn us negative on the Aussie

AUD/USD Strategy: Like the long side for at least a few more days.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

*.8845

.8955

.9035

*.9080

.9140

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD

PT_FEB_12_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Commodity Currencies Nearing Important Cyclical Inflections

The second half of next week is a long-term cycle turn window related to the 2012 low in USD/CAD. This should influence the exchange rate. The big question now is determining in which direction the reversal will be? When we first mentioned the turn date about a month ago we thought it would lead to a high (and it still can), but the persistent weakness over the past couple of weeks certainly increases the odds for a cycle inversion (low) especially if weakness continues for another week or so. This is basically just a roundabout way of saying that we will be looking to fade whatever trend materializes over the next few days. Until then we can really just observe.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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