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Price & Time: Big Test for the Euro

Price & Time: Big Test for the Euro

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD closing in on important support level
  • USD/JPY hovering above key support
  • Cycle turn window in GBP/USD today

Looking for real time Forex analysis throughout the day? Try DailyFX on Demand.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_Jan_30_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Big Test for the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode above 38% retracement of the October to January advance near 102.00
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below 103.75
  • The 102.00 area remains a key downside pivot with weakness below needed to signal the start of another leg lower in USD/JPY
  • A cycle turn window is seen on Friday/Monday
  • Only a close over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at 103.75 would turn us positive on the rate

USD/JPY Strategy: We like the short side while below 103.75.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

101.55

*102.00

102.50

103.40

*103.75

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_Jan_30_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Big Test for the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD has come under steady downside pressure since failing at the1.6660 200% extension of the October/November late last week
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Cable while above the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.6410
  • The 1.6660 is now a clear near-term upside pivot with traction above needed to re-instill upside momentum and expose a key Fibonacci/Gann attraction near 1.6730
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen over the next day or so
  • Only a daily close below 1.6410 would turn us negative on Cable

GBP/USD Strategy: We like the long side while over 1.6410.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

1.6310

*1.6410

1.6485

1.6540

*1.6660

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_Jan_30_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Big Test for the Euro

The cyclical picture looks to be turning negative once again for EUR/USD. Following repeated failures to close above a key Gann angle line earlier in the week the rate has begun to show renewed signs of weakness with the Euro falling below 1.3600 earlier today. A key level for us going forward is the 3rd square root relationship of 2013 high at 1.3540. A close below this level is required to confirm that a new leg lower is indeed underway. If the exchange rate fails to move below this key pivot within the next few days it will cast some doubt on the broader negative cyclical view. A move back over1.3700 would warn that our timing is off, but only traction above 1.3775 turns the outlook positive.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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