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Price & Time: State of the Euro

Price & Time: State of the Euro

2014-01-23 13:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY fails again at a key Fibonacci retracement
  • AUD/USD closing in on key support level
  • EUR/USD important few days coming up

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_Jan_23_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: State of the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY failed again overnight near the 78.6% retracement of the year-to-date range at 104.85
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the exchange rate while below 104.85
  • Interim support remains near 103.85, but weakness under the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 103.35 is required to set the stage for a more important and immediate decline
  • A turn window is seen over the next few days
  • Only a close over 104.85 would shift our near-term trend bias back to positive

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the short side while below 104.85

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*103.35

103.85

104.10

104.40

*104.85

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_Jan_23_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: State of the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD touched its lowest level in over 3 and a half years earlier this week before finding support near the 10th square root relationship of the October high at .8755
  • Our near-term trend bias in lower in the Aussie while below .8915
  • The .8755 level remains key support and weakness below this level is needed to prompt the next leg lower in the rate
  • Minor cycle turn windows are seen tomorrow and around the middle of next week
  • On a daily close above the 15th square root relationship of the 2013 high at .8915 would turn us negative

AUD/USD Strategy: We like the short side while below .8915.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

.8710

*.8755

.8775

.8860

*.8915

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_Jan_23_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: State of the Euro

The strength in EUR/USD today suggests the intermediate low we were looking for around the end of the week has come a little earlier than expected. This puts the Euro in a positive cyclical period for the next few days. We will be monitoring the price action during this time very closely. Our base case is that the Euro put in a significant peak late last year and that a downtrend of some importance has started. If this assumption is correct then positive cyclical periods in the exchange rate should be relatively modest in terms of price. Over the next few days we need to see gains in EUR/USD stay under the 61.8% retracement of the year-to-date range at 1.3745 and ideally below the January 14th swing high of 1.3698. Aggressive strength though the former will do some serious damage to the bear case. The next turn window in the Euro looks to be around the middle of next week.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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