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Price & Time: Sell GBP/USD Next Week?

Price & Time: Sell GBP/USD Next Week?

2014-01-17 13:20:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • EUR/USD nearing important downside pivot
  • GOLD closing in on important resistance
  • Important couple of days coming up for GBP/USD

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_JAN_17_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Sell GBP/USD Next Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under modest downside pressure since failing earlier this week near the 38% retracement of the year’s range at 1.3685
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Euro while below 1.3800
  • The 1.3540 area remains a critical near-term pivot with weakness below this level needed soon to prompt a continuation of the downtrend
  • The latter half of next week looks to be the next important cycle turn window
  • Only a close over 1.3800 would turn us positive on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like selling into strength while below 1.3800.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3490

*1.3540

1.3585

1.3685

*1.3800

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_JAN_17_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Sell GBP/USD Next Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD closed over the 1247 2nd square root relationship of the 2013 low on Monday
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the metal while above 1213
  • The 88.6% retracement of the December range at 1257 is immediate resistance and traction above is needed to further confirm the importance of Monday’s break and set up further upside
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • Only aggressive weakness below the 1st square root relationship of the 2013 low at 1213 would turn us negative on Gold

XAU/USD Strategy: Like buying into weakness over the next day or so.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1213

1224

1244

*1257

1270

Focus Chart of the Day: GBP/USD

PT_JAN_17_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Sell GBP/USD Next Week?

The 1.6345 level is important support for GBP/USD. It is the 2nd square root relationship of the year-to-date high. While the support has been breached several times over the past few days on an intraday basis, the level has yet to break on a daily close basis. A daily close is needed to confirm our suspicions that an important peak was indeed recorded on January 2nd and that a more important decline is underway. The reversal today in Cable comes during a minor cycle turn window that argues for up to a couple of days of strength before the rate heads lower again. A more important cycle turn date is seen around the end of next week. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a low around this time. A move through 1.6515 would cast some doubt on our negative cyclical view, but only a close over 1.6570 completely undermines the negative cyclical view.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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