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Price & Time: January Doesn't Usually Favor the Pound

Price & Time: January Doesn't Usually Favor the Pound

2014-01-02 13:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • GBP/USD fails just under key Gann resistance
  • EUR/USD reverses from key cycle turn window
  • NZD/USD closing in on important support level

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_Jan_2_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: January Doesn't Usually Favor the Pound

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD failed near the 1.3895 61.8% retracement of the 2009/2010 decline heading into the important cycle turn window this week
  • A move under the 2nd square root relationship of last year’s high at 1.3655 will turn us negative on the Euro
  • The 1st square root relationship of the 2012 high at 1.3775 is now important resistance with a move above needed to relieve immediate downside pressure
  • An important long-term cycle is in effect over the next few days
  • A daily close under the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3655 will turn us negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Will favor the short side on a close under 1.3655.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3580

*1.3655

1.3660

1.3720

*1.3775

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

PT_Jan_2_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: January Doesn't Usually Favor the Pound

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD has been under steady pressure since failing early last month at the 4th square root relationship of the 2012 high
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the Kiwi while below .8260
  • The 5th square root relationship of the October high near .8100 is key support with weakness below needed trigger the enxt important decline
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • A daily close over the 38.2% retracement of the October/November decline at .8260 would turn us positive on the Kiwi

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while under .8620.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

.8100

.8140

.8150

.8215

*.8260

Focus Chart of the Day: GBP/USD

PT_Jan_2_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: January Doesn't Usually Favor the Pound

The month of January has a seasonal tendency to be one of the worst performing months for European currencies. A few key cycle turn windows this week in the Euro and the Pound suggest this January could see more of the same especially when taking into account the recent jump in positive sentiment vis-a-vis the Daily Sentiment Index . In the case of Cable we have been looking for a top this week based on certain medium-term Fibonacci time relationships that seem to be playing out. Our idealized point of failure for this peak is the 15th square root relationship of the 2012 low at 1.6610 which is very close to today’s high. An initial downside pivot is seen at 1.6495, but a move under 1.6410 is really required to confirm that a more important peak is already in place in the Pound. Any strength through 1.6610 over the next couple of days would severely undermine the potential for a cyclical top.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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