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Price & Time: Yen Sentiment Again At Extremes

Price & Time: Yen Sentiment Again At Extremes

2013-12-31 13:40:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • JPY sentiment at historical extremes
  • EUR/USD at important cyclical inflection point
  • AUD/USD recovers from key Gann level

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_DEC_31_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Yen Sentiment Again At Extremes

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD failed near the1.3895 61.8% retracement of the 2009/2010 decline on Friday
  • Our near-term trend bias remains higher in the exchange rate while over 1.3655
  • The 1.3895 level and the 50% retracement of the 2008/2010 decline at 1.3955 are major upside attractions that need to be overcome if the Euro is to embark on a more important move higher
  • An important long-term cycle is in effect over the next few days
  • A move under the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3655 will turn us negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Favor the long side while over 1.3655

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3655

1.3765

1.3780

1.3830

*1.3895

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_DEC_31_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Yen Sentiment Again At Extremes

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD found support again on Monday at the 9th square root relationship of the October high near .8860
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the Aussie while below .8965
  • A daily close below .8860 is needed to signal a resumption of the broader downtrend
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • A daily close over the 8th square root relationship of the October high at .8965 would turn us positive on the exchange rate

AUD/USD Strategy: Like the long side on a move through .8965.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

.8780

*.8860

.8935

*.8960

.9035

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

PT_DEC_31_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Yen Sentiment Again At Extremes

The Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) in the Yen fell to just 7% bulls on Friday. Historically such low levels of sentiment have been a reliable precursor to corrections in USD/JPY. Interestingly at the same time this extreme in sentiment is occurring the exchange rate is close to important long-term resistance in the form of the 61.8% retracement of 2007/2011 decline near 105.60. The missing ingredient for a correction is cyclicality, though a case could be made for a Gann turn window here if one uses the late October low (45 trading days from 10/25 was yesterday). A Gann angle line related to the 2011 low is at 103.90 and we are using this as a key near-term support level. If the exchange rate cannot get through 105.60 over the next few days and falls below 103.90 we will turn much more negative on USD/JPY.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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