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Weekly Price & Time: Important Cycle Turn Window Coming Up in the Euro

Weekly Price & Time: Important Cycle Turn Window Coming Up in the Euro

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • EUR/USD records new high for the year before encountering strong resistance
  • USD/JPY trades at new 5-year high
  • Gold stabilizes around 1200

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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_dec_27_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Important Cycle Turn Window Coming Up in the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD recorded a new high for the year on Friday before encountering resistance near the 61.8% retracement of the 2009/2010 decline
  • Our broader bias is positive on the Euro while above 1.3660
  • The 50% retracement of the 2008/2010 decline near 1.3955 is critical on the upside with traction above required to set off a more important move higher in 2014
  • The upcoming week looks like an important cyclical inflection point for the exchange rate
  • A move under the 8th square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.3660 would turn us negative on the Euro

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Looking to sell the Euro next week into the cycle turn window if ir reacts negatively.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3660

1.3760

1.3775

1.3895

*1.3950

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_dec_27_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Important Cycle Turn Window Coming Up in the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY touched its highest level in over five years on Friday
  • Our broader trend bias is positive in the exchange rate while above 103.00
  • The 61.8% retracement of the 2007/2011 decline at 105.55 is a potentially important inflection point with strength above needed to prolong the advance
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is next week
  • Only a move under 103.00 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Like being long against 103.00

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

101.70

*103.00

104.95

*105.55

106.40

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

WPT_dec_27_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Important Cycle Turn Window Coming Up in the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD closed at its lowest level of the year last week before finding support at the 1x2 Gann angle line of the 2012 high
  • Our broader trend bias is negative in the metal while below the 1x2 Gann angle line of the August high now near 1243
  • The year’s intraday low near 1180 is an important near-term pivot with weakness below this level needed to confirm a more important decline
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is eyed around the end of the year
  • A daily close back over 1243 is needed to turn us positive on Gold

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like being square here.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1160

*1180

1215

1221

*1243

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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