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Price & Time: Do or Die Time for AUD/USD

Price & Time: Do or Die Time for AUD/USD

2013-12-26 12:35:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Euro lacking momentum ahead of next week’s important cycle turn window
  • AUD/USD enters into Gann cycle turn window
  • GBP/USD nearing key resistance zone

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_DEC_26_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Do or Die Time for AUD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD is in consolidation mode following last week’s failure at 1.3800
  • Our near-term trend bias remains positive on the Euro while over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.3595
  • The 61.8% retracement of the 2011/2012 decline at 1.3830 remains critical resistance with traction above required to inspire the next meaningful push higher in the rate
  • A cycle turn window of importance is seen next week
  • Only a daily close below 1.3595 would turn us negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Favor the long side while over 1.3595

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3595

1.3655

1.3695

1.3710

*1.3830

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_DEC_26_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Do or Die Time for AUD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD failed last week a few pips shy of the 14th square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.6495
  • Our near-term trend bias remains higher in Cable while over the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.6225
  • A move through 1.6495 is needed to signal a resumption of the broader uptrend
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • A daily close below 1.6225 would turn us negative on the Pound

GBP/USD Strategy: Favor the long side while over 1.6225.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.6225

1.6320

1.6390

1.6435

*1.6495

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

PT_DEC_26_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Do or Die Time for AUD/USD

AUD/USD has been under steady downside pressure for 46 trading days since failing at the 200-day moving average back in October. A Gann “Death” cycle is 45 days (plus or minus a few days) and is a useful interval in which to be on the lookout for a potential reversal (when an instrument has been trending aggressively leading into it). The action in the Aussie seems to fit the bill and we will be closely watching the rate over the next few days for any signs of a reversal. The 9th square root relationship of the October high at .8860 and the 16th square root relationship of the year’s high at .8790 look to be the key support levels from where a reversal could try to materialize. Aggressive weakness below the latter, however, would likely undermine all potential for a turn. Traction over .8960 is required to confirm that some sort of low is in place.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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