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Price & Time: Gold - A Low in Place?

Price & Time: Gold - A Low in Place?

2013-12-17 13:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Euro stuck below key resistance
  • AUD/USD closing in on the lows of the year
  • Gold forming a base

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_DEC_17_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Gold - A Low in Place?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded to its highest level since late October last week before reversing over the past few days
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive on the Euro while over 1.3595
  • The 61.8% retracement of the 2011 to 2012 decline at 1.3830 remains a major upside barrier and traction above is needed to trigger a more important move higher
  • Several Pi and Fibonacci cyclical relationships converge at the end of the month
  • Only a daily close below 1.3595 would turn us negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Favor the long side while over 1.3595.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3600

1.3715

1.3745

1.3800

*1.3830

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_DEC_17_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Gold - A Low in Place?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUDUSD has come under steady pressure since failing last week at a key Gann convergence near .9160
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower in the Aussie while below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s low at .9035
  • Immediate downside attention is on the 1st square root relationship of the year’s low at .8910 with weakness below likely exposing the intraday extremes of the year
  • A cycle turn window is seen around the end of the year
  • Only a daily close back over .9035 would turn us positive on the Aussie

AUD/USD Strategy: Favor the short side while under .9035.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

0.8845

*0.8910

0.8915

0.8960

*0.9035

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_DEC_17_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Gold - A Low in Place?

Before we left on holiday we wrote about the potential for a low in Gold during the first week in December. Despite numerous intraday probes below, the low close in the metal for the month remains the idealized turn window date of December 2nd. While the strength in Gold exhibited since then has admittedly been rather pathetic there is still a very real possibility in our view that this is all part of a basing process. Last week’s high of 1267.75 is an important near-term pivot with traction above needed to confirm that a more important low is indeed in place. On the other hand, weakness below 1211 on an intraday basis or a close below 1219 would negate the potential for a more important cyclical low.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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