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Price & Time: AUD/USD Trades to Three Month Lows

Price & Time: AUD/USD Trades to Three Month Lows

2013-12-04 13:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • USD/JPY correction underway
  • GBP/USD consolidates below key resistance
  • AUD/USD breaks below key support zone

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_DEC_4_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: AUD/USD Trades to Three Month Lows

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded to its highest level since late May on Tuesday before reversing sharply
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive on the exchange rate while over 101.30
  • A move through 103.70 is required to signal the start of another important leg higher
  • The next minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • Only a daily close below the 2nd square root relationship of yesterday’s high at 101.30 would turn us negative on the rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Favor the long side while over 101.30.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*101.30

101.75

102.40

103.05

*103.70

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_DEC_4_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: AUD/USD Trades to Three Month Lows

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD traded to its highest level since August of 2011 on Monday before stalling
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher while over 1.6185
  • A convergence of the 161.8% extension of the October/November decline and the 14th square root relationship of the year’s low near 1.6500 is the next major attraction
  • An important cycle turn window is seen around the end of the week
  • Only a daily close below the 2nd square root relationship of the year’s high at 1.6185 will shift our near-term trend bias to negative

GBP/USD Strategy: Favor the long side while over 1.6185.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.6185

1.6255

1.6360

1.6440

*1.6500

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

PT_DEC_4_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: AUD/USD Trades to Three Month Lows

Last week we talked about the importance of various support levels between .9060 and.9030 in AUD/USD and its potential to spark a recovery. We did get one, but the week long recovery was very tepid as the exchange rate could never get through our key resistance at .9170 (Gann square root relationship with year’s high). Today’s downside push below .9030 puts the Aussie in a precarious position, but for how long? Cyclical analysis suggests the rate is prone for a reversal early next week as several reliable methodologies all converge between Monday and Wednesday. A fall to around the year’s low during this time would set up a potentially interesting counter-trend opportunity.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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