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Price & Time: USD/JPY Closing In On Six Month High

Price & Time: USD/JPY Closing In On Six Month High

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • USD/JPY near six month high
  • USD/CHF nearing important support zone
  • Crude at important cyclical inflection

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_NOV_25_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: USD/JPY Closing In On Six Month High

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded to its highest level since late May earlier today
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive on the exchange rate while above the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 99.65
  • A Gann line at 101.85 is immediate resistance ahead of the next important resistance zone at 102.70
  • The next 24 hours or so is the end of a Gann cycle turn window related to the year’s high
  • Only a daily close below 99.65 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 99.65.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*99.65

100.65

101.80

101.85

*102.70

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

PT_NOV_25_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: USD/JPY Closing In On Six Month High

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF came under heavy downside pressure on Friday and closed at its lowest level in several weeks
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/CHF while above .9045.
  • The 1x1 Gann angle line of the year’s high at .9170 is an important near-term pivot with traction over this level needed to signal that another important move higher is underway
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen on Tuesday
  • Only a daily close below the 8th square root relationship of the year’s high at .9045 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/CHF Strategy: Like the long side while over .9045.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

0.9025

*0.9045

0.9070

0.9110

*0.9170

Focus Chart of the Day: Crude

PT_NOV_25_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: USD/JPY Closing In On Six Month High

Crude came under pressure first thing on Monday following the news over the weekend of an Iranian nuclear agreement. Interestingly, this move lower has come during the other cycle turn window in November that we talked about at the beginning of the month (Read here). The commodity is still quite a bit away for our idealized support zone near 91.00 (convergence of 78.6% retracement of the April to August advance and 2ns square root relationship of the 3Q13 high), but should it trade near there in the next day or so we will be watching intently for any signs of a reversal. Given the low of the month came during the other cycle turn window in November that we highlighted there is a chance that today’s move lower is just a re-test of that ahead of another move higher. However, a clear push through 95.60 is really needed to confirm such a positive scenario.

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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