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Price & Time: Today is an Important Time Juncture in the Euro

Price & Time: Today is an Important Time Juncture in the Euro

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • Looking for a reversal in the Euro over the next day or so
  • USD/JPY overcomes important Gann barrier
  • Gold cycle turn window seen around the middle of the week

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_NOV18_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Today is an Important Time Juncture in the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY closed over the 2x1 Gann angle line of the year’s high at 100.00 on Friday
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 98.60
  • A major upside pivot is the 3rd square root progression of the year’s high at 100.65 with a daily close above needed to confirm that another period of important strength in the exchange rate is underway
  • A minor turn window is seen today and at the end of the week
  • Only a move under the 5th square root progression of the year’s high near 98.60 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 98.60.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*98.60

100.00

100.10

*100.65

101.25

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

PT_NOV18_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Today is an Important Time Juncture in the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF has come under steady downside pressure since last week’s failure at the 61.8% retracement of the September to October decline in the .9250 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is still higher in the exchange rate and will remain so while above the 2nd square root progression of the year’s low at .9070
  • Interim resistance is seen at .919, but traction over .9250 is really required to signal a resumption of the recetn uptrend
  • The next day or so is a medium-term cycle turn window in the rate
  • A daily close below .9070 would turn us negative on USD/CHF

USD/CHF Strategy: Like holding long positions while the rate is above .9070.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

*0.9070

0.9105

0.9125

0.9190

*0.9250

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_NOV18_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Today is an Important Time Juncture in the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD rebounded last week off the 88.6% retracement of the late Ocotober advance at 1264
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the metal while below 1322
  • A move under Gann support at 1242 look required to spark a more impulsive decline
  • The middle of the week is a medium-term cycle turn window in Gold
  • A daily close back over 1322 is required to turn us positive on the metal

XAU/USD Strategy: Square here.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1242

1264

1283

1301

*1322

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_NOV18_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Today is an Important Time Juncture in the Euro

As we noted a week ago the next day or so is a potentially important cycle turn window in EUR/USD as it marks a convergence of two important Fibonacci and Pi time relationships related to the 2008, 2010 and 2012 lows. Ideally we would have liked to see the Euro making new lows into this period, but alas it looks like it was not meant to be. We did warn that if the Euro recovered steadily for a few days it would set up some sort of secondary peak and this is what we are looking for now following the price action of the past few days. Gann points at 1.3525, 1.3540 and 1.3595 look to be key resistance and levels from which a reversal can materialize. We should probably note that if the exchange rate falls sharply over the next 24-36 hours it could still set up some kind of important low, but this is something we will address only on the off chance that it occurs. The next important cycle turn window in the Euro looks to be around the second week of December.

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--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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