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Weekly Price & Time: Eyes on the Euro

Weekly Price & Time: Eyes on the Euro

2013-11-15 16:55:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Important cycle turn window early next week in the Euro
  • USD/JPY gains traction over 99.00
  • Gold breaks important Gann support

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_nov_15_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Eyes on the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has traded steadily higher since finding support last week near the 50% retracement of the July to October advance near 1.3290
  • Our broader bias remains negative on the Euro while below 1.3595
  • The 1.3290 level remains a key pivot with weakness below needed to trigger a more material decline
  • The first couple of days next week are a potentially important cycle turn window in the rate
  • Any strength back over the 2nd square root progression of the year’s high at 1.3595 would shift our broader trend bias to positive

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding a tactical short position while below 1.3595.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3290

1.3360

1.3480

1.3500

*1.3595

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_nov_15_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Eyes on the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY gained traction this past week above the 99.00 upper boundary of the multi-month contracting range
  • Our broader trend bias is positive in the exchange rate while above the 5th square root progression of the years’ high at 98.60
  • The 3rd square root progression of the May high at 100.65 is critical resistance with traction above required to confirm that a more important push higher is underway
  • Cycle turn windows are seen early next week and on Friday
  • A move under 98.60 will undermine the positive tone in USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Like being long against 98.60.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*98.60

99.65

100.25

*100.65

101.25

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

WPT_nov_15_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Eyes on the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD traded to its lowest level since mid-October and closed below the 1x1 Gann angle line of the year’s closing low
  • Our broader trend bias is now negative on the metal and will remain so while below 1322
  • Weakness under Gann support at 1243 is really needed to confirm the start of a more important move lower
  • The middle of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • A daily close back over 1322 would shift the bias to postive in the metal again

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like being square here.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1243

1264

1288

1322

*1364

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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