News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Notice

BoE Chief Econimist (Hawk) is to Step Down From BoE After June Meeting

Real Time News
  • When is Kodak going to get into the SPAC game? Bitcoin mining pivot in 2018 and Vaccine production pivot in July 2020. Any day now...
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.19% Gold: 0.74% Oil - US Crude: 0.34% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/QNPEEysdEK
  • The Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 will look to the arrival of earnings season for influence. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/96vOGDYq2K https://t.co/xUE3PxGz9B
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.41%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.87%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/akuL5mmcvW
  • Pfizer states it can deliver 10% more vaccine doses to the US by the end of May $PFE $SPX $NDX $RUT
  • Had the pleasure of sitting down with @GuyAdami and @RiskReversal for another episode of The Macro Setup to discuss $GLD $BTC and $SPX ahead of earnings season and the Coinbase IPO Watch here - https://t.co/6usEdkA5om
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.41% Germany 30: 0.06% Wall Street: 0.00% FTSE 100: 0.00% US 500: -0.01% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/0qT3sH7l3i
  • #Bitcoin breaks out to fresh all-time highs as investors cast an eye to the long awaited Coinbase IPO #BTC $BTCUSD https://t.co/qwxlzkGa9C
  • NY Fed Treasury purchase schedule remains unchanged - BBG
  • Silver posting a strong session, now up 2.3% on the day. In recent trade, silver has struggled to break above the 50-day EMA $XAG $USD https://t.co/BetnXeKLj3
Price & Time: Important Break in Gold?

Price & Time: Important Break in Gold?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • Gold breaks key Gann support level
  • USD/JPY threatening bigger break
  • Cable nearing cycle turn window

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_NOV_13_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Important Break in Gold?

XAU/USD finally closed below the 1x1 Gann angle line of the year’s closing low at 1277 yesterday. This Gann level had been acting as important support and actually repelled the decline last month. Tuesday’s technical break is thus probably significant and increases the risk of further losses especially with a very mature topping pattern looming overhead on the daily and weekly charts. Gann support at 1243/48 is now a critical pivot with a move below likely exposing the year’s low. The cyclical picture is quite muddled with all the choppy price action of the past few months, though the middle of next week looks like a potentially important cyclical turn window. A move today back over 1277 would raise concern of a false break, but traction over 1322 is really needed to alleviate the immediate negative tone.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_NOV_13_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Important Break in Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY probed above the 4th square root progression of the year’s high at 99.60 on Tuesday
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 97.55
  • A daily close over 99.60 is now critical in confirming a breakout from the multi-month contracting range
  • The first and latter half of next week are cycle turn windows in USD/JPY
  • A move under the 6th square root progression of the year’s high at 97.55 would turn us negative on the rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 97.55

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*97.55

98.70

99.45

*99.60

100.65

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_NOV_13_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Important Break in Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD has come under aggressive downside pressure since last month’s failure at the 200-day moving average
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Aussie while below .9420
  • Gann support between .9260 and .9220 is a critical action/reaction zone
  • The second half of the week is a potentially important cycle turn window
  • A move back over .9420 would turn us positive in the Aussie

AUD/USD Strategy: Like reducing short exposure into the cycle turn window.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

*0.9220

*0.9260

0.9310

0.9360

*0.9420

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_NOV_13_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Important Break in Gold?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD traded to its lowest level since mid-September on Tuesday
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in Cable while below 1.6055
  • The 9th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.5895 is important support and a daily close below this level is needed to signal a resumption of the latest decline
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is seen over the latter half of the week
  • Back over the 50% retracement of the late October/November decline at 1.6055 would shift our trend bias back to positive

GBP/USD Strategy: Like reducing short positons into this turn window.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

1.5830

*1.5895

1.5970

1.6000

*1.6055

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES