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Price & Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?

Price & Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • AUD/USD cyclical picture turning more positive in the next few days
  • EUR/USD has an important turn window at the end of the week
  • USD/CHF falters at key Gann resistance

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

PT_NOV_12_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?

In yesterday’s Price & Time (link) we highlighted the cyclical importance of the end of the week (and early next week) in the Euro. This timeframe looks like it could have some significance for a few other pairs as well. AUD/USD in particular looks vulnerable to a reversal around the same time as several short term unrelated cyclical methods converge Thursday & Friday. A low of some kind is favored in the exchange rate during this time with focus for the moment on a Gann support zone between .9260 and .9220. We will be closely monitoring sentiment via the DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) and momentum through rate-of-change (ROC) for signs of exhaustion to help bolster a reversal signal as currently these metrics are surprisingly only just barely negative. On the upside, only a move through the 3rd square root progression of the October high near 94.60 would suggest the Aussie had bottomed ahead of schedule.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_NOV_12_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD is in consolidation mode above the 1.3290 50% retracement of the July to October range
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Euro while below the 6th square root progression of the year’s low near 1.3545
  • Traction under 1.3290 is needed to signal a resumption of the decline
  • The end of the week (and first few days of next week) is a potentially important cycle turn window
  • Any move back through 1.3545 would shift the near-term trend bias to positive

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.3545.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3195

*1.3290

1.3390

1.3430

*1.3545

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

PT_NOV_12_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF traded to its highest level since mid-September last week before encountering resistance at the 4th square root progression of the year’s low in the .9245 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above .9070
  • The resistance at .9245 looks quite formidable and a daily close above this level is needed to signal the start of another meaningful push higher
  • The latter half of the week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • A decline below the 2nd square root progression of the year’s low at .9070 would undermine the immediate positve tone in the rate

USD/CHF Strategy: Like holding long positions while above .9070.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

*0.9070

0.9155

0.9200

*0.9245

0.9275

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_NOV_12_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Low in AUD/USD Later This Week?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD traded to its highest level since early September on Tuesday before finding resistance at the 1st square root progression of the year’s high at 1.0505
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Funds while above 1.0400
  • Traction over 1.0505 exposes a key upside attraction/reaction zone around 1.0585
  • A very minor cycle turn window is seen later this week
  • Under 1.0400 would turn us negative on Funds

USD/CAD Strategy: Like holding a reduced long position while over 1.0400.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0400

1.0445

1.0495

*1.0505

1.0540

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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