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Weekly Price & Time: Important Timing for the Euro Next Week

Weekly Price & Time: Important Timing for the Euro Next Week

2013-11-08 15:25:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Important cycle turn window next week in the Euro
  • USD/JPY threatening a break from the contracting range
  • Gold nearing critical support level

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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_Nov_8_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Important Timing for the Euro Next Week

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded to its lowest level since mid-September this week before stalling just ahead of the 50% retracement of the July to October advance in the 1.3290 area
  • Our broader bias is now negative and will remain so while below 1.3595
  • The 1.3290 area is now a key pivot with weakness below needed to trigger a more material decline
  • The latter half of next week and the first few days of the week of the 18th is an important cycle turn window
  • Any strength back through 1.3595 would shift our broader trend bias back to higher

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding tactical short positions while below 1.3595.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3380

1.3475

1.3350

1.3480

*1.3595

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_Nov_8_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Important Timing for the Euro Next Week

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains near the middle of a multi-month contracting range but has begun to show some signs of life with recent spells of dramatic intraday volatility
  • Our broader trend bias is now positive on USD/JPY and will remain so while above 96.55
  • The 99.40 level is now important resistance with traction above needed to confirm the start of a more important push higher in the exchange rate
  • The latter half of the month is a potentially important cycle turn window in the rate
  • Any weakness below 96.55 would re-invigorate downside prospects and pave the way for a decline over the remainder of the quarter

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Like being long against 96.55.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*96.55

97.60

98.80

*99.05

99.65

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

WPT_Nov_8_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Important Timing for the Euro Next Week

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has come under further downside pressure over the past few days to trade to its lowest level since the middle of last month
  • Our broader trend bias is positive in the metal while above the 1x1 Gann angle line of the year’s closing low near 1275
  • The 1322 area is interim resistance ahead of the critical 1364 level which needs to be overcome to signal a resumption of the uptrend
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen over the next few days
  • A move under 1275 on a multi-day close basis would turn us negative on the metal

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like the long side against 1275.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1242

*1275

1285

1322

*1364

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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