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Price & Time: Elephants Can't Hide

Price & Time: Elephants Can't Hide

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • Increase in JPY volume could signal a looming break of the range
  • EUR entering a minor cycle turn window
  • USD/CHF nearing important resistance zone

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/JPY

PT_NOV_1_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Elephants Can't Hide

A few banks have reported very high G10 FX volume so far this morning with one saying it has already done double its average turnover. Such figures would be impressive on any day, but when one takes into account that today is a holiday in much of Europe it is even more so. What is particularly interesting about today’s bump in volume is that a lot of it is reportedly coming from activity in JPY. Given USD/JPY has done little recently and is almost perfectly in the middle of multi-month contracting range we can’t help but wonder if this activity is leading a break from the triangle. A mentor once said "elephants can't hide" when asking whether volume mattered or not - meaning the larger players who move the markets can't hide their tracks as it shows up in volume. We shall see if that is the case here. Key levels to watch in the days ahead remain the mid-October high of 98.99 and last month’s low at 96.55. A clear break of either should set off an important directional move.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_NOV_1_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Elephants Can't Hide

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under steady downside pressure since failing last week at the 1.3830 61.8% retracement of the 2011 to 2012 decline
  • Our near-term trend bias is now lower in the single currency and will remain so while below 1.3715
  • The 88.6% retracement of the mid-October range at 1.3515 is immediate support, but under the 3rd square root progression of the year’s high at 1.3475 is really needed to usher in another bout of serious weakness
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen today
  • Only a close back over the 1st square root progression of the year’s high at 1.3715 would shift the near-term trend bias back to positive

EUR/USD Strategy: Exited remaining long on move under 1.3655. Like selling into the strength expected over the next couple of days against 1.3715.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3475

1.3515

1.3520

1.3595

*1.3715

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

PT_NOV_1_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Elephants Can't Hide

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF has moved sharply higher from last week’s medium-term cycle turn window
  • The strength through .8975 has shifted our near-term trend bias to positive
  • Immediate focus is on the 78.6% retracement of the mid-October decline at .9120, but the real attraction/reaction zone looks to be at a Gann/Fibnacci convergence in the .9170 area
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen today
  • Only weakness back below .8975 would undermine the immediate positive tone in USD/CHF

USD/CHF Strategy: Like buying on weakness over the next couple of days.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

*0.8975

0.9035

0.9100

0.9115

*0.9170

Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500

PT_NOV_1_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Elephants Can't Hide

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • S&P 500 failed at the start of a medium-term cycle turn window mid-week at the 1778 4th square root progression of the June low
  • However, while over 1708 our near-term trend bias has to remain positive in the index
  • A move back through 1778 is needed to negate the cycle window and signal a resumption of the broader uptrend
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen arouund the middle of next week
  • The 1730 area is near-term support, but only aggressive weakness below 1708 would warn that a deeper and more sinister decline is unfolding

S&P 500 Strategy: Like holding only a reduced long position in the index while over 1730.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

S&P 500

*1730

1744

1758

*1778

1790

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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