We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 08:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.95% Wall Street: 0.88% Germany 30: 0.80% France 40: 0.76% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/6JMsIfRGtb
  • EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Drop May Be About to Resume - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/eur-usd/2020/02/25/EURUSD-Technical-Analysis-Euro-Drop-May-Be-About-to-Resume.html #EURUSD #technicalanalysis https://t.co/mn0q0xw02x
  • What are the six different types of stocks every trader should know? Find out from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/yO3JalkqUU https://t.co/ihHwmPxZAk
  • European Opening Calls From IG: #FTSE 7188 +0.43% #DAX 13141 +0.81% #CAC 5830 +0.66% #AEX 597 +0.59% #MIB 23785 +1.53% #IBEX 9561 +0.82% #STOXX 3678 +0.81%
  • 🇪🇺 EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F), Actual: 0.4% Expected: 0.4% Previous: 0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-25
  • 🇪🇺 EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q F), Actual: 0.3% Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-25
  • 🇪🇺 EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F), Actual: 0.3% Expected: 0.4% Previous: 0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-25
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F) due at 07:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.4% Previous: 0.4% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-25
  • Heads Up:🇪🇺 EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q F) due at 07:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.3% Previous: 0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-02-25
  • The spread of #coronavirus promises a global economic hit at a time when the global economy is perhaps especially ill-equipped to deal with one. Growth-correlated assets are vulnerable. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/0If0Jw7c2P https://t.co/QA2fOFIODL
Price & Time: EUR/USD - Correction or Change in Trend?

Price & Time: EUR/USD - Correction or Change in Trend?

2013-10-31 12:05:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • Euro decline gathers pace
  • Range break looming in USD/JPY
  • GBP/USD flirting with key support level

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_OCT_31_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: EUR/USD - Correction or Change in Trend?

Writing a cycle focused market report on the last day of the month is always a bit of a crap shoot as a couple of big orders around the London fix can make one look very foolish. That said we will give it a go as the EUR/USD short-term picture looks fairly clear. The correction we were looking for from last week’s medium-term cycle turn window has unfolded nicely and especially over the past 24-hours as the rate has taken out key support levels at 1.3740 and 1.3715. Friday and part of Monday look like a pretty clear minor turn window from where EUR/USD should try to turn up. How aggressive this anticipated move up is will be a big clue as to whether the correction has more room to run or not. A tepid recovery (or failure to bounce at all) that holds well below 1.3770 and lasts only a couple of days sets up a deeper decline over the next few weeks. An aggressive rally, on the other hand, early next week back through 1.3770 would signal that correction was only a week long affair and the broader uptrend is resuming.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_OCT_31_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: EUR/USD - Correction or Change in Trend?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY remains stuck near the center of the multi-month narrowing range
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive on the exchange rate while above 96.55
  • The 5th square root progression of the year’s low at 98.60 is immediate resistance, but traction over 99.00 is really need to signal the start of a more meaningful direction move higher
  • A longer-term Fibonacci time relationship suggest a breakout of the range is forthcoming in the next few days
  • The 97.55 area is near-term support, but only under the 7th square root progression of the year’s high at 96.55 would turn us negative on the rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Square awaiting more directional clarity.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*96.55

97.55

98.20

98.60

*99.00

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_OCT_31_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: EUR/USD - Correction or Change in Trend?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD has come under steady pressure following last week’s failure to overcome the early October high at 1.6260
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher while above 1.6015
  • The 1.6090 area is immediate resistance, but traction over 1.6260 is really needed to signal that the broader uptrend is resuming
  • Early next week is a minor turn window
  • A daily close below the convergence of the 78.6% retracement of the year’s range and the 1x3 Gann angle line of the year’s low in the 1.6015 area would shift the trend bias to negative

GBP/USD Strategy: Like only reduced longs while above 1.6015.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

1.5960

*1.6015

1.6035

1.6090

*1.6260

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_OCT_31_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: EUR/USD - Correction or Change in Trend?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD found support yesterday just below the .9455 61.8% retracement of the October range
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below the 8th square root progression of the year’s low at .9595
  • The .9455 level is now an important near-term pivot with weakness below needed to trigger the next leg lower in the rate
  • A very minor cycle turn window is seen over the next day or so
  • Only unexpected aggressive strength back over .9595 would shift our trend bias back to positive in the Aussie

AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .9595

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

0.9400

*0.9455

0.9500

0.9550

*0.9595

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.