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Price & Time: What to Watch in the Wake of the FOMC

Price & Time: What to Watch in the Wake of the FOMC

Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist

Talking Points

  • Euro in correction mode
  • CAD on sentiment extremes
  • GOLD closing in on important resistance

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up toKristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CAD

PT_OCT30_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: What to Watch in the Wake of the FOMC

The move higher in USD/CAD over the past week or so has been impressive as the exchange rate has overcome several key technical levels with relative ease. During this push higher, sentiment towards the Canadian Dollar has collapsed. The Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) for instance, is now at around just 10% bulls. Such lopsided sentiment is usually reserved for rates near yearly extremes. USD/CAD is still well below its year-to-date high and the extreme in sentiment being exhibited is no doubt unusual. However, it is still a warning sign that needs to be respected especially as Funds closes in on a medium-term cycle turn window in the next few days. Ideally sentiment will drop a bit further to setup the ‘perfect reversal’. More on this as it develops.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_OCT30_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: What to Watch in the Wake of the FOMC

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under further downside pressure following last week’s failure at the 61.8% retracement of the 2011 to 2012 decline
  • Our near-term trend bias is still positive on the exchange rate and only a move below 1.3655 would shift it to negative
  • Resistance between 1.3830 and 1.3890 is an important attraction/reaction zone and traction over it is needed to prompt a continuation of the broader advance
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen around the end of the week and general weakness is favored into this timeframe
  • A daily close below the 9th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.3655 would turn us immediately negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding only a reduced long position while above 1.3655.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3655

1.3730

1.3760

1.3805

*1.3830

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

PT_OCT30_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: What to Watch in the Wake of the FOMC

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD has come under steady downside pressure following the failure a couple of week’s back at the 78.6% retracement of the year-to-date range
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Kiwi while below the 50% retracement of the October range near .8370
  • The 38% retracement of the June to October advance in the .8215 area is important support with weakness below needed to prolong the current decline
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen later this week
  • Only aggressive strength back through .8370 would turn us positive on the Bird

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .8370.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

0.8180

*0.8215

0.8285

0.8355

*0.8370

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_OCT30_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: What to Watch in the Wake of the FOMC

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has moved steadily higher from the cycle turn window around the middle of the month
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Gold while above the 1x1 Gann angle line of the year’s closing low in the 1270 area
  • The 61.8% retracement of the August to September decline at 1363 is immediate resistance ahead of a Gann attraction at 1372
  • A cycle turn window is seen later next week
  • Only unexpected aggressive weakness below 1270 on a closing basis would turn us negative on the yellow metal

XAU/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1270.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1270

1318

1350

1363

*1372

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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