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Price & Time: FOMC the Next Macro Trigger?

Price & Time: FOMC the Next Macro Trigger?

2013-10-29 11:45:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Euro reverses from Fibonacci zone
  • Aussie decline gathers pace
  • SPX entering into cycle turn window

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

PT_OCT_29_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: FOMC the Next Macro Trigger?

Another day and another new all-time high in the S&P 500 yesterday. While no major cycle turn windows are seen for a while in the index we feel some caution is warranted over the next few days as a medium-term cycle turn window is slated for the second half of the week. At the same time sentiment as measured by the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) is closing in on 90% bulls - a level that has coincided with tops in the past. We will be paying close attention to a Gann/Fibonacci confluence between 1770/90 as this area marks a potential near-term stopping point for the SPX. The 1730 level is important support, but only unexpected aggressive weakness below 1708 would signal a deeper decline is unfolding in the stock market.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_OCT_29_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: FOMC the Next Macro Trigger?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD has come under modest downside pressure following last week’s failure at the 61.8% retracement of the 2011 to 2012 decline in the 1.3830 area
  • Our near-term trend bias remains positive on the exchange rate while above the 9th square root progression of the year’s low in the 1.3655 area
  • Resistance between 1.3830 and 1.3890 is a major overhang and needs to be overcome on a daily closing basis to set up a more important move higher
  • The end of the week is a minor cycle turn window
  • A daily close below 1.3655 would turn us negative on the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like holding only a reduced long position while above 1.3655.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3655

1.3740

1.3760

1.3805

*1.3830

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_OCT_29_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: FOMC the Next Macro Trigger?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD has come under further downside pressure following last week reversal during a medium-term cycle turn window
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the Aussie while below the 1st square root progression of the month-to-date high in the .9660 area
  • The 61.8% retracement of the October range near .9460 is the next clear attraction/reaction level
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen over the next day or so
  • Only a close over .9660 would signal and early resumption of the broader uptrend in AUD/USD

AUD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .9660.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

0.9420

*0.9460

0.9495

0.9560

*0.9660

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_OCT_29_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: FOMC the Next Macro Trigger?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD traded to its highest level in over a month and a half last week before encountering resistance just above the 61.8% retracement of the July to September decline near 1.0450
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in Funds while above the 50% retracement of the August to September decline near 1.0370
  • Traction over 1.0450 is needed to expose the next Gann attraction at 1.0485
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen over the next day or so
  • Weakness back under 1.0370 would shift the trend bias negative

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.0370.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0370

1.0410

1.0430

1.0450

*1.0485

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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