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Price & Time: Keeping a Close Eye on the Euro

Price & Time: Keeping a Close Eye on the Euro

2013-10-28 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Euro enters into final day of medium-term cycle turn window
  • USD/CHF rebounds ahead of key support
  • Gold nearing important resistance zone

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Focus Chart of the Day: EUR/USD

PT_OCT_28_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Keeping a Close Eye on the Euro

Today is the final day of a medium-term cycle turn window in EUR/USD. We have been looking for a correction to materialize given the clear and somewhat extended trend leading into it. So far this has proven rather illusive, but a clear failure today at key resistance between 1.3830/95 could quickly change things. The 1.3740 area looks like a near-term pivot with weakness below needed to confirm that a minor top is in place. Continued strength in the Euro into the middle of the week would invalidate the cycle window. The next cyclical window of importance looks to be around the middle of November.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_OCT_28_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Keeping a Close Eye on the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY continues to meander around the middle of a multi-month contracting range
  • Our near-term trend bias is positive on the exchange rate while above the 7th square root progression of the year’s high at 96.60
  • The 5th square root progression of the year’s high at 98.60 is resistance, but a move through 99.65 is really needed to inspire a more important push higher
  • A Fibonacci time cycle suggests the rate is vulnerable to a break from the contracting range over the next few days
  • A daily close under 96.60 would turn us negative on the exchange rate

USD/JPY Strategy: Square until we get more clarity.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*96.60

97.20

97.65

98.60

*99.65

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CHF

PT_OCT_28_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Keeping a Close Eye on the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CHF traded to it lowest levels in over two years last week before finding support just ahead of a critical Fibonacci and Gann confluence in the .8840/70 area
  • Our near-term trend bias remains negative on USD/CHF while below the 10th square root progression of the 2012 high at .8975
  • However, a daily close under .8840 is really needed to signal a resumption of the broader decline
  • Today is the final day of a medium-term cycle turn window
  • A move over .8975 especially on a daily close basis would warn that a more important correction higher is unfolding

USD/CHF Strategy: Took partial profit heading into the current turn window in USD/CHF. Like holding the reduced short position as long as .8975 holds.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CHF

*0.8840

0.8875

0.8945

*0.8975

0.9045

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_OCT_28_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Keeping a Close Eye on the Euro

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has moved steadily higher since reversing during the cycle turn window around the middle of the month
  • Our near-term trend bias is higher in the metal while above the 1x1 Gann angle line of the year’s closing low at 1275
  • The 2nd square root progression of the August high at 1357 is immediate resistance, but the 1x1 Gann angle line near 1375 looks like the next important upside attraction/reaction zone
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen around the middle of the week
  • A daily close below 1275 would turn us negative on the metal

XAU/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1275.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1275

1321

1351

1357

*1375

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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