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Weekly Price & Time: Euro Breaks 1.3800 - Now What?

Weekly Price & Time: Euro Breaks 1.3800 - Now What?

2013-10-25 15:35:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Euro closing in on major resistance zone
  • USD/JPY nearing a range break
  • Gold rebounds gathers pace

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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_eur_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Breaks 1.3800 - Now What?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded to its highest level since November of 2011 this week
  • The broader trend bias is higher in the Euro while above important Gann support at 1.3540
  • The 61.8% retracement of the 2011 to 2012 at 1.3830 is an important resistance as is the top of the 1-year standard deviation channel at 1.3880
  • The middle of November and the first half of December look significant for the Euro from a longer-term cyclical perspective
  • Weakness below 1.3540 would turn the broader outlook negative

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Looking to initiate tactical long positions in the Euro.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3540

1.3655

1.3795

*1.3830

*1.3880

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_eur_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Breaks 1.3800 - Now What?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY continues to trade near the middle of a multi-month contracting range
  • While below 98.60 on a weekly close basis our broader trend bias remains lower
  • The 7th square root progression of the year’s high at 96.60 remains a critical support level with weakness below needed to trigger a more impulsive decline
  • A fibonaci time relationship suggests the next few days could see a break of the multi-month range
  • A move back through 98.60 is needed to signal that a more important move higher is unfolding

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Square here, but will sell a break of 96.60.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

95.60

*96.60

97.35

97.55

*98.60

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

WPT_eur_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: Euro Breaks 1.3800 - Now What?

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has moved steadily higher from last week’s cycle turn window
  • A weekly close over 1322 will turn us positive on the metal
  • Gann resistance at 1375 is the next major hurdle on the upside with a move above needed to prolong the move higher
  • A cycle turn window is seen around the first half of next month
  • A move under the 1x1 Gann angle line of the year’s closing low now at 1270 would suggest a more important decline is unfolding

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Square here, but looking to initiatiate tactical gold longs on weakness.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1270

1317

1345

1357

*1375

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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