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Price & Time: Important Week for the Bird

Price & Time: Important Week for the Bird

2013-10-07 12:25:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Kiwi at important cyclical juncture this week
  • USD/JPY breaks key support zone
  • Gold nearing important directional move

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Focus Chart of the Day: NZD/USD

PT_bird_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Important Week for the Bird

This week is shaping up to be important for NZD/USD from a cyclical perspective as a couple of important cycle turn windows are slated. With the rate holding below the first square root progression of the September high on Friday at .8340, the risk in our view is that the correction in place since late September will try to resume over the next couple of days (during the first window). Should this occur it will set up a bigger picture upside trend resumption during the more important cycle turn window expected at the end of this week (and Monday of next week). A daily close above .8340 before then would suggest the Kiwi is resuming its broader uptrend ahead of schedule.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_bird_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Important Week for the Bird

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has come under renewed pressure to start the week
  • Our near-term trend bias is lower in the rate while below the 5th square root progression of the year’s high near 98.60
  • The 78.6% retracement of the August to September advance at 96.80 is a downside pivot with weakness below needed to expose attractions at 95.80 and below
  • The middle of next week is a minor turn window
  • It would take a daily close back above 98.60 to turn the outlook more positive in USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Looking to sell on strength

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

96.55

*96.80

96.90

97.60

*98.60

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_bird_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Important Week for the Bird

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD has moved higher since finding support last week near the 12th square root progression of the year’s high in the .9295 area
  • Our near-term trend bias remains lower, however, while below the 1st square root progression of the last month’s high near .9435
  • A daily close below .9295 is needed to confirm a resumption of the near-term downtrend
  • A minor turn window is seen on Tuesday
  • A daily close back over .9435 would turn us positive on the Aussie

AUD/USD Strategy: We like selling the Aussie on strength into tomorrow’s turn window.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

*.9295

.9370

1.6055

*.9435

.9505

Price & Time Analysis: XAU/USD

PT_bird_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Important Week for the Bird

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD is in consolidation mode following last week’s rebound off the 4th square root progression of the August high near 1280
  • While below 1356our near-term trend bias will remain lower
  • Interim support is seen around 1301, but under 1280 is really needed confirm a downside resumption
  • Early next week is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • A move through the 2nd square root progression of the August high at 1356 would alleviate downside pressure and re-focus higher

XAU/USD Strategy: Might look to sell at higher levels.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1280

1301

1317

1347

*1356

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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