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Weekly Price & Time: USD/JPY Flirting with Break of Key Weekly Support

Weekly Price & Time: USD/JPY Flirting with Break of Key Weekly Support

2013-10-04 15:30:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Talking Points

  • Weekly close in USD/JPY will be important
  • EUR/USD stalls after breaching 1.3600
  • Gold holding above important weekly support zone

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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

WPT_jpy_body_Picture_3.png, Weekly Price & Time: USD/JPY Flirting with Break of Key Weekly Support

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD broke above Fibonacci resistance at 1.3600 this week to trade to its highest level since early February
  • The broader trend bias is higher while above last month’s low near 1.3100
  • The 8th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.3655 is the next clear area of resistance with traction above needed setup the next important push higher
  • The middle of next month looks to be an important cycle turn window for the Euro
  • Important support zones are seen at 1.3475 and 1.3250, but only a weekly close below 1.3100 turns the broader outlook negative on the Euro

Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Looking to initiate tactical long positions in the Euro.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3360

1.3475

1.3590

*1.3655

1.3710

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

WPT_jpy_body_Picture_2.png, Weekly Price & Time: USD/JPY Flirting with Break of Key Weekly Support

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY has broken under a key Gann convergence in the 97.60 area to trade to its lowest level in over a month
  • A weekly close below this level will turn our broader trend bias lower in the exchange rate
  • The 5th square root progression of the year’s at 98.60 needs to be overcome to re-invigorate broader upside prospects
  • A medium-term cycle turn window is seen here
  • A weekly close under 97.60 will turn the outlook negative and focus will turn to 95.85

Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Will stop out of tactical longs on a weekly close below 97.60.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*95.85

96.55

97.15

98.00

*98.65

Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

WPT_jpy_body_Picture_1.png, Weekly Price & Time: USD/JPY Flirting with Break of Key Weekly Support

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD broke under the late September low at the start of the week to trade to its lowest level since early August
  • While above 1292 on a weekly closing basis our trend bias will remain higher in the metal
  • The 5th square root progression of the year’s low at 1350 remains important resistance with traction above needed to signal a trend resumption
  • The second half of the month is a medium-term cycle turn window
  • A weekly close below 1292 will turn us negative on the metal

Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like tactical long positions in Gold while above 1292.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1273

*1292

1311

*1350

1384

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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