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Price & Time: G10 Currencies Pressing Key Levels Ahead of the Fed

Price & Time: G10 Currencies Pressing Key Levels Ahead of the Fed

2013-09-18 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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  • EUR/USD consolidates below key Fibonacci retracement
  • Kiwi stalls advance near major Gann resistance
  • Gold nearing major support level

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_G10_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: G10 Currencies Pressing Key Levels Ahead of the Fed

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD failed at the start of the week near the 78.6% retracement of the late August decline in the 1.3375 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is still higher in the exchange rate and will remain so while above 5th square root progression of the year’s low near 1.3315
  • The 1.3375 level is obviously a near-term pivot, but traction over the 6th square root progression of the year’s low at 1.3425 is really required to confirm the start of a more important move higher
  • The second half of the week is a cycle turn window
  • A close under 1.3315 would undermine the burgeoning positive tone and turn us negative on the single currency

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1.3315.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3255

*1.3315

1.3345

1.3375

*1.3425

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

PT_G10_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: G10 Currencies Pressing Key Levels Ahead of the Fed

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD traded to its highest level since mid-May on Tuesday before encountering resistance near the 3x1 Gann angle line of the year’s closing high in the .8240 area
  • Our near-term trend bias remains higher in the Kiwi while above the 5th square root progression of the year’s low at .8115
  • Traction over .8240 is needed to maintain the immediate upside tack
  • The first half of next week is a potential medium-term cycle turn window
  • Weakness under .8115 would turn us negative on the Bird

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over .8115

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

0.8070

*0.8115

0.8220

*0.8240

0.8305

Price & Time Analysis: S&P 500

PT_G10_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: G10 Currencies Pressing Key Levels Ahead of the Fed

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • S&P 500 continues to threaten major cycle resistance at 1710
  • A daily close over this level is required to shift the broader trend bias back to positive
  • Medium-term cycle studies suggest that the latter half of the week is a possible turn window
  • The 1670 area is interim support for the index
  • However, only weakness below 1627 would signal that a more important peak has been recorded

S&P 500 Strategy: Square here.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

S&P 500

*1627

1670

1706

*1710

1741

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_G10_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: G10 Currencies Pressing Key Levels Ahead of the Fed

XAU/USD has come under steady downside pressure since failing late last month at the 6th square root progression of the year-to-date low in the 1419 area. Our cycle analysis suggests that the latter half of this week is an important turn window for the metal from where the uptrend in place since late June may try to re-assert itself. Of course this is largely dependent upon XAU not losing too much more ground before then. Critical support for us is the 1273/76 area as this marks a convergence of the 61.8% retracement of the June to August advance and the early August low. A daily close below this zone would suggest that a more important decline is likely in the cards.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in GOLD in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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