Price & Time: The Next Cycle Turn in AUD/USD

• AUD/USD approaching cycle turn window later this week
• EUR/USD overcomes key Gann resistance at 1.3325
• Gold meanders around a critical support level

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• EUR/USD overcame key Gann resistance at 1.3325 early on Monday to trade to its highest level in three weeks
• Our near-term trend bias is now higher in the single currency and will remain so while above the 50% retracement of the August to September decline in the 1.3275 area
• The 78.6% retracement of the August to September decline at 1.3380 is a near-term upside pivot, but strength over 1.3425 on a closing basis is required to confirm the start of a more important advance
• The second half of the week is a cycle turn window
• Weakness back under 1.3275 would turn the outlook back to negative in the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like being square here for a few days.

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• NZD/USD overcame the .8175 50% retracement of the year-to-date range on Monday to trade to its highest level since mid-May
• Our near-term trend bias remains higher in the Kiwi while over .8115
• The 5th square root progression of the year’s closing high at .8215 is important resistance with a close over this level needed to prolong the advance
• The latter half of the week is an important medium-term cycle turn window
• Weakness under .8115 on a closing basis would turn undermine the immediate positive tone in the exchange rate

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over .8115

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• XAU/USD continues to meader around the 1x1 Gann angle line of the 2012 closing high in the 1320 area
• While over 1270 our trend bias remains higher in the metal
• The 5th square root progression of the year’s low near 1350 is an important near-term pivot with strength above required to reinvogorate upside prospects
• An important cycle turn window is seen around the latter part of the week
• A close below 1270 at anytime will turn the technical outlook in Gold to negative

XAU/USD Strategy: Like being square for a few days.

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

We have written at length about the potential importance of the early August low in AUD/USD as that time period holds a Fibonacci time relationship with several important lows of the past four years. The successful re-test of this low late last month and subsequent strength back through .9300 is further evidence than an important bottoming process is taking place as is the confirmation of a clear inverse head & shoulders pattern on the daily and weekly charts. Short-term cycle analysis favors further strength into the next minor turn window late this week.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX