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Price & Time: The Next Cycle Turn in AUD/USD

Price & Time: The Next Cycle Turn in AUD/USD

2013-09-16 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:
  • AUD/USD approaching cycle turn window later this week
  • EUR/USD overcomes key Gann resistance at 1.3325
  • Gold meanders around a critical support level

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_Aud_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: The Next Cycle Turn in AUD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD overcame key Gann resistance at 1.3325 early on Monday to trade to its highest level in three weeks
  • Our near-term trend bias is now higher in the single currency and will remain so while above the 50% retracement of the August to September decline in the 1.3275 area
  • The 78.6% retracement of the August to September decline at 1.3380 is a near-term upside pivot, but strength over 1.3425 on a closing basis is required to confirm the start of a more important advance
  • The second half of the week is a cycle turn window
  • Weakness back under 1.3275 would turn the outlook back to negative in the Euro

EUR/USD Strategy: Like being square here for a few days.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3200

*1.3275

1.3340

1.3375

*1.3425

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

PT_Aud_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: The Next Cycle Turn in AUD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • NZD/USD overcame the .8175 50% retracement of the year-to-date range on Monday to trade to its highest level since mid-May
  • Our near-term trend bias remains higher in the Kiwi while over .8115
  • The 5th square root progression of the year’s closing high at .8215 is important resistance with a close over this level needed to prolong the advance
  • The latter half of the week is an important medium-term cycle turn window
  • Weakness under .8115 on a closing basis would turn undermine the immediate positive tone in the exchange rate

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over .8115

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

NZD/USD

0.8075

*0.8115

0.8205

*0.8215

0.8280

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_Aud_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: The Next Cycle Turn in AUD/USD

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD continues to meader around the 1x1 Gann angle line of the 2012 closing high in the 1320 area
  • While over 1270 our trend bias remains higher in the metal
  • The 5th square root progression of the year’s low near 1350 is an important near-term pivot with strength above required to reinvogorate upside prospects
  • An important cycle turn window is seen around the latter part of the week
  • A close below 1270 at anytime will turn the technical outlook in Gold to negative

XAU/USD Strategy: Like being square for a few days.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

*1270

1302

1318

*1350

1385

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

PT_Aud_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: The Next Cycle Turn in AUD/USD

We have written at length about the potential importance of the early August low in AUD/USD as that time period holds a Fibonacci time relationship with several important lows of the past four years. The successful re-test of this low late last month and subsequent strength back through .9300 is further evidence than an important bottoming process is taking place as is the confirmation of a clear inverse head & shoulders pattern on the daily and weekly charts. Short-term cycle analysis favors further strength into the next minor turn window late this week.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in AUD in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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