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Price & Time: Important Few Days Coming Up For Gold

Price & Time: Important Few Days Coming Up For Gold

2013-09-11 12:15:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
  • USD/JPY stalling at Gann resistance
  • XAU/USD at an important near-term pivot
  • GBP/USD trades to 7-month highs

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Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY

PT_xau_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Important Few Days Coming Up For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/JPY traded to its highest level since mid-July on Wednesday before encountering resistance just below the 5th square root progression of the August low at 100.70
  • Our near-term trend bias will remain higher in the rate while above a slew of Fibonacci and Gann support levels in the 98.40 area
  • The 100.70 level is now a clear near-term upside pivot with traction above needed to expose more serious resistance at 101.25
  • A minor cycle turn window is in effect over the next couple of days
  • Some Gann levels near 99.40 should provide interim support, but only weakness below 98.40 would turn us negative on USD/JPY

USD/JPY Strategy: Like the long side while over 98.40

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/JPY

*98.40

99.40

100.35

*100.70

*101.25

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_xau_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Important Few Days Coming Up For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD broke above the 2Q13 high on Wednesday to trade to its highest level in over 7 months
  • Out near-term trend bias is higher in Cable while above the 1x3 Gann angle line of the year-to-date low in the 1.5600 area
  • A convergence of the 4th square root progression of the year’s high and the 1x4 Gann angle line of the year’s low in the 1.5830 area needs to be overcome soon to set up further gains
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen around the end of the week
  • Weakness below 1.5600 on a closing basis is required to undermine the immediate positive tone in Sterling

GBP/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.5600

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.5600

1.5650

1.5765

*1.5830

1.5895

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_xau_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Important Few Days Coming Up For Gold

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD repeated failures at the 1x2 Gann angle line of the 2012 low has led to significant weakness over the past week or so
  • Weakness below 1.0430 has turned our near-term trend bias negative in Funds
  • Critical support is seen at the 2x1 Gann angle line of the 2012 closing low near 1.0325 with weakness below on a closing basis needed to trigger a more serious decline
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen today and at the end of the week
  • The 50% retracement of the July range at 1.0430 is important near-term resistance and only strength above this level would turn us positive on USD/CAD

USD/CAD Strategy: Like selling USD/CAD on strength.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

1.0265

*1.0325

1.0335

1.0400

*1.0430

Focus Chart of the Day: GOLD

PT_xau_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Important Few Days Coming Up For Gold

XAU/USD has come under steady pressure since failing late last month at the 7th square root progression of the year-to-date low at 1418. So far the price action in the metal looks only corrective, but a big test to this view will come around 1357 and 1350. The former is the 2nd square root progression of the August high while the latter is the 5th square root progression of the year’s low. If the metal is set to undergo a more immediate resumption of its most recent advance then this is the zone from where it should probably occur (could maybe go as low as the 38% retracement of the June-August advance around 1337). Too much weakness below 1337 and the prospects for a much more messy drawn out corrective process will greatly increase in our view. Only weakness below 1270 turns the technical picture negative, however.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in GOLD in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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