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Price & Time: Where the Rubber Meets the Road

Price & Time: Where the Rubber Meets the Road

2013-09-10 12:00:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
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  • Next couple of days are critical for the S&P 500
  • EUR/USD cycle turn window seen late this week
  • AUD/USD in the midst of a more important bottoming process

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_where_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Where the Rubber Meets the Road

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD found support last week just ahead of the 50% retracement of the July to August advance in the 1.3100 area
  • Subsequent strength has been impressive, but while below a convergence of several key Gann and Fibonacci levels near 1.3315 our near-term trend bias will remain lower
  • Weakness back below 1.3220 and then 1.3100 is needed to signal a resumption of the near-term trend
  • The latter half of the week is a clear medium-term cycle turn window in the Euro
  • A close over 1.3315 would turn us much more positive on EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below 1.3315.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

*1.3100

1.3220

1.3245

1.3280

*1.3315

Price & Time Analysis: AUD/USD

PT_where_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Where the Rubber Meets the Road

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • AUD/USD traded to its highest level since late July early on Tuesday
  • While over the 3rd square root progression of the year’ low at .9130 our near-term trend bias will remain higher in the exchange rate
  • The 5th square root progression of the year-to-date low coincides with the July high near .9315 and close over this level will signal that broader bottoming process is taking place
  • A minor turn window is seen around the end of the week
  • Weakness back under .9130 would undermine the immediate positive tone in the rate

AUD/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over .9340

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

AUD/USD

*0.9130

0.9170

0.9285

*0.9315

0.9360

Price & Time Analysis: GOLD

PT_where_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Where the Rubber Meets the Road

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • XAU/USD has come under steady downside pressure since failing on a closing basis at the 7th square root progression of the year-to-date low in the 1418 area at the end of last month
  • While above the 5th square root progression of the year’s low near 1350 our near-term trend bias will remain higher in the metal
  • The 1418 Gann level remains an important upside pivot, but over 1440 is really required to confirm the start of another important leg higher
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen today and at the end of the week
  • Weakness below 1350 would undermine the immediate positive tone, but only weakness below 1280 turns the outlook negative on the metal

XAU/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1350

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

XAU/USD

1318

*1350

1369

1389

*1418

Focus Chart of the Day: S&P 500

PT_where_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Where the Rubber Meets the Road

The next two days are important for the US equity markets. Seemingly with the impressive strength being exhibited in the indices over the past 36 hours all is well and a run at the all-time highs in the SPX has become for many all but a forgone conclusion in the days ahead. We are not so sure. An important cycle turn window exists over the next couple of days and with the S&P 500 testing a key resistance zone (1680 to 1692) at the same time there is a good chance in our view that it will lead to secondary top and a much more tumultuous September/October. A daily close over 1700 or any sort of strength through 1710 would obviously prove our fears unjustified.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the SPX in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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