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Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch Around the Central Bank Decisions

Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch Around the Central Bank Decisions

2013-09-05 10:47:00
Kristian Kerr, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:
  • EUR/USD rebounds off an Andrews line
  • AUD/USD potentially tracing out a more important bottom
  • GBP/USD needs to overcome 1.5725 to signal the start of a more important move higher

To receive other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to Kristian’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:forex technical analysis,forex analysis,forex trading strategies,forex signals,forex strategies,forex strategy, forex trading

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

PT_sep_5_body_Picture_4.png, Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch Around the Central Bank Decisions

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • EUR/USD traded to its lowest level in over a month Tuesday before finding support at an Andrews line in the 1.3160 area
  • Our near-term trend bias is negative on the exchange rate while below 1.3300
  • The Andrews line at 1.3160 is now a key level of focus with weakness below ideally on a closing basis needed to signal a downside resumption
  • A medium-term turn window is eyed around the second half of next week
  • Strength back over the 1.3300 50% retracement of the August to September decline would turn the outlook back to positive

EUR/USD Strategy: Like selling into strength over the next few days.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

EUR/USD

1.3130

*1.3160

1.3200

1.3240

*1.3315

Price & Time Analysis: GBP/USD

PT_sep_5_body_Picture_3.png, Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch Around the Central Bank Decisions

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • GBP/USD has moved steaduly higher since finding support on a closing basis last week at the 1x1 Gann angle line of the year-to-date high
  • While over 1.5460 our near-term trend bias will remain higher
  • The 78.6% retracement at 1.5655 is the next minor upside pivot, but strength over 1.5725 is really required to signal the start of a more important move higher
  • A minor cycle turn window seen at the end of the week
  • The 50% retracement of the late August decline is near-term support, but only weakness below the 1x1 Gann line at 1.5460 undermines the postive structure in Cable

GBP/USD Strategy: Like buying on weakness next week.

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

GBP/USD

*1.5460

1.5570

1.5605

1.5655

*1.5725

Price & Time Analysis: USD/CAD

PT_sep_5_body_Picture_2.png, Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch Around the Central Bank Decisions

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

  • USD/CAD has struggled to overcome resistance at the 1x2 Gann angle line of the of the 2012 closing low in the 1.0560 area
  • However, while above the 50% retracement of the July range at 1.0425 our near-term trend bias is higher in the rate
  • The 1.0560 remains a critical near-term pivot with strength above required to unlock critical resistance at 1.0610 and above
  • A minor cycle turn window is seen early next week
  • Weakness below 1.0425 on a closing basis would turn us negative on Funds

USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while above 1.0425

Instrument

Support 2

Support 1

Spot

Resistance 1

Resistance 2

USD/CAD

*1.0425

1.0465

1.0480

1.0560

*1.0610

Focus Chart of the Day: AUD/USD

PT_sep_5_body_Picture_1.png, Price & Time: Key Levels to Watch Around the Central Bank Decisions

In previous Price & Times we have written about the potential importance of the early August low as this time period holds a clear Fibonacci time relationship with several important lows of the past 4 years. Last week’s inability to break under .8845 further confirms its importance and raises the possibility that a larger bottoming process is unfolding. Traction over .9230 especially on a weekly closing basis would be further confirmation of this scenario. Only unexpected weakness below .8845 would completely undermine the positive potential time cycle relationship.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved

Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the AUD in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.

To contact Kristian, e-mail instructor@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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